Global shipping companies are pivoting from ordering container ships, amid rising concerns about oversupply, to placing orders for tankers. With ship supply falling short of crude oil transport demand and replacement needs for aging vessels overlapping, the tanker market is heating up. After the Middle East war sent freight rates soaring and boosted revenue, shipowners moved to secure new vessels. As Chinese shipyards that have won a slew of tanker orders on price competitiveness see their construction docks fill quickly, observers say Korean shipbuilders' pricing power in negotiations will likely strengthen.
According to the shipbuilding industry on the 13th, HD Hyundai Samho changed a contract signed last December with Greece's major carrier Capital Group from building four container ships to four 157,000 DWT crude oil tankers on the 4th. This is the largest crude carrier that can pass through the Suez Canal when fully laden with crude. Delivery was moved up by about a month to Oct. 31, 2028. A $466 million container ship project has been turned into a $360 million tanker project.
At the early stage of a shipbuilding contract, a change in ship type is generally possible by agreement between the shipowner and the shipyard. However, because it often requires paying a change fee or committing to additional orders, the burden also falls on the shipowner.
Clarksons Research, a U.K.-based shipbuilding and shipping market analysis firm, said, "Shipyards are accepting requests to switch existing contracts to tankers in return for securing favorable revenue terms, such as price hikes or adding higher-margin eco-friendly specifications," and added, "With the recent strength in the tanker market, such moves to change ship types are steadily increasing."
◇ Tanker shortage and soaring freight rates expand shipowners' ordering capacity
Shipowners are accepting the expense burden to change ship types because supply-demand outlooks for container ships and tankers are diverging. Container ships have already seen large-scale orders, raising future supply pressure, while tankers still face a structurally insufficient fleet.
According to Clarksons Research, as of the end of last year, the container ship order backlog equaled 34% of the existing fleet. That means new tonnage roughly one-third the size of vessels currently in operation could be added to the market going forward. By contrast, the tanker order backlog ratio stands at 17%.
Freight rate spikes driven by the Middle East war are also stoking the tanker market's strength. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively blocked and traffic plunging more than 90%, Saudi Arabia adjusted its export routes by loading some crude at ports along the Red Sea coast.
As voyage distances lengthened, tanker freight rates surged to a record high. Last week, short-term charter rates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) from the Middle East to China hit $480,000 per day, and Suezmax vessels earned more than $300,000 per day on average.
The global shipping market's average daily revenue index also reached an all-time high of $53,319. With expanded operating revenue from tankers, shipowners secured cash liquidity, increasing their capacity to place new orders.
Kang Kyung-tae, an analyst at Korea Investment & Securities Co., said, "Within the merchant ship cycle that began in 2021, the newbuilding tanker order market will grow the strongest this year," adding, "From January this year through the 8th, new tanker orders placed with shipyards worldwide totaled 97 vessels, more than three times the 30 over the same period last year."
◇ Chinese shipyard docks are full; Korean pricing power rises
Shipyard docks to take on rising tanker orders are filling fast. According to Korea Investment & Securities Co., all 47 VLCCs ordered this year and about 58% of the 33 Suezmaxes headed to Chinese shipyards. Major Chinese yards such as Hengli Heavy Industries and New Times Shipbuilding have largely filled merchant shipbuilding slots through 2028 delivery.
The industry expects this trend to work in favor of Korean shipbuilders. As Chinese shipyard docks quickly reach capacity, Korean shipbuilders could gain more pricing power among shipowners pushing for earlier delivery.
An industry official said, "Tanker tonnage requiring fast delivery could be an opportunity for Korean shipyards," and added, "With strong freight rates, shipowners' funding capacity is not bad, so the ship new building price for tankers is expected to remain high for the time being."