With tensions rising in the Middle East after the death of Iran's supreme leader in U.S. and Israeli strikes and a declaration to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, Korea's oil refining, airline, and shipping industries moved swiftly into emergency response.
According to related industries on the 2nd, major refiners held an emergency meeting the previous day to review scenarios for crude supply disruptions and began drawing up measures to minimize damage, such as securing alternative routes.
The Strait of Hormuz is a key shipping lane through which 20% to 30% of the world's oil trade passes, and if it is blocked, a surge in crude prices is inevitable. As of last year, the share of Middle Eastern crude in Korea's total imports reached 69.1%, and more than 95% of that passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MOTI) said that the Strait of Hormuz is not currently closed. It explained that one HMM container ship that passed through the area the previous day exited safely, and that Korean-flagged oil tankers and liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers are operating normally so far without damage.
However, immediately after the U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it would blockade the Strait of Hormuz, and with four civilian vessels attacked in nearby waters, causing casualties, anxiety over maritime logistics has risen to an unprecedented level.
A refinery industry official said, "If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, crude import expense will skyrocket and the entire supply network will inevitably be shaken," adding, "We are most wary of supply disruptions that could occur as oil prices soar."
Accordingly, refiners are checking the safety of operating tankers while reviewing alternative routes, securing immediately available spot cargoes, and diversifying suppliers. That said, with 1 billion barrels of government stockpiles included, the public and private sectors have secured seven months' worth of strategic reserves, so the industry expects the short-term hit to be limited. But if the situation drags on, logistics expense across industries, including transportation, will rise, and a global economic slowdown could reduce demand for petroleum products itself, posing a major risk.
Airlines are also canceling flights in line with Middle East airspace controls and closely watching the rise in international oil prices. Korean Air Lines turned back flight KE951, which departed Incheon Airport at 1:13 p.m. on the 28th last month bound for Dubai International Airport, redirecting it over Myanmar back to Incheon. It also canceled KE952, which was scheduled to depart Dubai for Incheon at 9 p.m. that day, and preemptively canceled the round-trip flights scheduled to depart on the 1st.
Korean Air Lines, the only Korean carrier operating the Incheon–Dubai route round trip seven times a week, plans to adjust its schedule while monitoring local conditions. The Incheon–Tel Aviv, Israel, route previously operated by Korean Air Lines has remained suspended since October 2023, after armed clashes broke out between the Palestinian militant group Hamas and Israel.
The airline industry is also highly wary of growing financial burdens from the simultaneous rise in oil prices and exchange rates. When the price of jet fuel, which accounts for a significant portion of operating expense, rises, it is difficult to fully offset it with higher fuel surcharges, dealing a major blow to operating profit. In addition, because about 30% of fixed expense—such as fuel costs, aircraft lease fees, and maintenance costs—is settled in dollars, a higher exchange rate further increases expense burdens.
The shipping industry operating vessels through the Strait of Hormuz has also begun reviewing contingency plans. For shipping companies with a high share of tanker and bulk carrier operations, such as SK Shipping and Pan Ocean, the Strait of Hormuz is an unavoidable waypoint. During past Middle East crises, ships sailed in convoy under the protection of U.S.-U.K. coalition escorts. But this time, because the United States is directly involved in the situation, industry officials said it will be difficult to adopt the same convoy method as before.
Accordingly, foreign shipping companies transiting the Strait of Hormuz are already choosing to turn back, heave to, or reroute. Domestic companies such as Pan Ocean and SK Shipping are also coordinating with the shipping association to review contingency plans, including rerouting and changing lanes, in preparation for any eventuality.
In the short term, freight rates may rise when routes are diverted, but burdens from international oil prices and insurance premiums will also surge. In the longer run, some note that supply-chain instability could trigger overall market uncertainty.
An industry official said, "We are closely cooperating with government authorities to prepare various contingency plans," adding, "We hope this conflict does not turn into a protracted battle involving a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and is brought under control as soon as possible."