There is growing speculation that Japan's push to export lethal weapons for the first time in about 60 years could set up a competitive dynamic with K-defense on the global stage. While Japanese defense companies have long stayed within the domestic market, observers say their accumulated technology from being a country that has fought large-scale wars cannot be ignored. Still, some analysts say Japan's defense supply chain has eroded over time, and it will take time to build development and production systems suited to the global market.
According to Kyodo News and other Japanese media on the 1st, the Liberal Democratic Party's security policy council on the 25th approved a proposal to be submitted to the government to ease export rules for defense equipment. Japan currently allows exports only for five types of nonlethal equipment: rescue, transport, reconnaissance, surveillance, and mine clearance.
If the proposal passes, lethal weapons such as fighter jets would in principle be allowed for export. However, exports of lethal weapons would be limited to countries that have relevant agreements with Japan. The Japanese government is said to be aiming to complete the revisions by the 19th, before the U.S.-Japan summit.
If Japan sells lethal weapons on the global market, it would mark a change occurring for the first time in about 60 years since 1967. In the defense industry, some forecast that if Japan's weapons exports gain momentum, they will compete with K-defense.
Eric Zhu, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence (BI), a research unit of Bloomberg, recently released a report saying, "Japan will ease arms export regulations as part of broad military reforms after the ruling party led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi won a landslide victory in an early general election," adding, "This will trigger regional competition with Korean defense companies." In fact, Takaichi and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party won a landslide victory in the early general election on the 8th.
Korea's defense industry says Japan's defense technology should be acknowledged. A defense industry official said, "The major defense powers such as the United States and Europe are places that actually built and flew fighter jets during World War II," adding, "Japan acquired technology through direct warfare, so even if it has not exported for a long time, it has high potential."
Another defense industry official also said, "If Japan builds systems suited to the global market, it is highly likely to emerge as a strong competitor to K-defense."
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is one of Japan's leading defense companies. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries mainly produces and provides related services for ▲ aircraft such as fighter jets and helicopters ▲ various missile systems such as surface-to-air ▲ surface vessels such as destroyers and submarines ▲ shipborne equipment such as torpedoes ▲ special vehicles such as tanks.
In fighter jets, it overlaps with Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI), and in missile systems, with Hanwha Aerospace and LIG Nex1. In surface vessels, it can compete with HD Hyundai Heavy Industries and Hanwha Ocean.
In fact, K-defense lost to Japan in a project for 11 destroyers worth $10 billion (about 14.3 trillion won) ordered by Australia last year. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Germany's ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems were shortlisted as final candidates, and Mitsubishi is said to have scored points for stealth performance, manpower reduction, and construction speed despite being 20% more expensive than Germany. This is Japan's first export case of a destroyer.
However, even if Japan resumes weapons exports immediately, the prevailing view for now is that it will take time before it can stand shoulder to shoulder with K-defense. A defense industry official said, "The weapons Japan currently has are ones that can be used only in the domestic market, and they must be able to smoothly upgrade performance to suit local conditions in each country," adding, "The potential technological capability is high, but it will not be easy to take on the global market right away."
According to Nikkei Asia, the Japanese government released survey results in 2023 showing the industry had declined, with more than 100 defense firms leaving the sector over the past 20 years.
Another defense industry official said, "Korea is a quasi-wartime nation that always prepares for and simulates war, and it has built an efficient one-stop process from weapons system design to mass production," adding, "Japan, by contrast, is focused on defense and highly dependent on the United States, making it hard to gauge whether it will actually affect K-defense."
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), as of 2024, Japan's weapons exports accounted for just 0.1% of the global total. Korea accounted for 3.3% over the same period.