As the United States tightens restrictions on solar cells and modules produced by Chinese corporations and brought in from Southeast Asia and India, expectations are growing that domestic corporations will benefit. The United States is currently seeing a surge in demand for solar power generation due to the expansion of the artificial intelligence (AI) industry.
According to the energy industry on the 18th, the U.S. Department of Commerce plans to announce this month the preliminary determination results related to the anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) investigations launched in Aug. last year into silicon solar cells and modules from Indonesia, Laos, and India.
In Apr. last year, the Department of Commerce finalized AD and CVD on solar cells and modules manufactured and imported from four Southeast Asian countries—Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. AD was set by corporation at 6.1% to as high as 271.28%, and CVD at up to 3,403.96%. The move targeted Chinese solar corporations that were making circumvention exports to the United States with products produced at Southeast Asian factories.
Since then, volumes of solar cells and modules entering the United States from the four Southeast Asian countries have decreased, but imports from Indonesia, Laos, and India have surged. In response, the Department of Commerce viewed these countries as a new circumvention route for Chinese corporations and launched an investigation.
If the preliminary determination finds them to be circumvention export products of Chinese corporations, high rates of tariff are expected to be imposed retroactively. Since 2022, the Department of Commerce has been collecting tariff retroactively on products of Chinese solar corporations produced in the four Southeast Asian countries through 2024.
Due to the United States' tough regulations, some Chinese corporations have recently been pursuing withdrawal from the U.S. market. Boviet Solar, a solar cell and module manufacturing corporation established in Vietnam by China's Boway Group, is reviewing a plan to sell its U.S. solar business institutional sector. The Department of Commerce imposed tariff on Vietnamese products, making it difficult to continue the business.
If China pulls out of the U.S. solar cell and module market, domestic corporations with production bases in the United States, such as Qcells and OCI Holdings, will be in a favorable position. If Chinese products that were essentially entering with only the packaging changed decrease, distribution volumes could fall and product prices could rise further.
Qcells plans to complete the Solar Hub, an integrated solar production complex in the United States, within this year. OCI Holdings is reviewing construction of a solar cell production line on the site of its local subsidiary, Mission Solar Energy.
Recently, the United States has been meeting surging power demand with solar power generation. According to the Korea Energy Technology Evaluation and Planning (KETEP), U.S. electricity demand increased by 135 terawatt-hours (TWh) last year, and solar generation rose by 83 TWh, covering 61% of the total increase in demand.
Solar power has a shorter installation period—1 year 6 months to 2 years—than other generation sources such as nuclear power (more than 10 years) and combined-cycle power (2–3 years), enabling a quick response to rapidly growing electricity demand. In particular, the more AI data centers increase, the greater the demand will be for generation sources with short installation periods.
Qcells signed a solar panel supply and EPC (engineering, procurement, and construction) contract with Microsoft (MS) in 2024. It plans to supply solar modules to procure the electricity that MS data centers will use through 2032.