The Korea Automotive Technology Institute said on the 15th that growth in the global finished car market this year will be modest, similar to last year.
According to the Korea Automotive Technology Institute's outlook report on major countries' auto markets for 2026, global finished car sales in 52 countries this year are forecast at 90.71 million units, up 3.3% from last year. By country, sales are projected at 29.34 million in China (up 5.9%), 16.42 million in the United States (down 2.0%), 5.57 million in India (up 2.2%), 4.76 million in Japan (up 4.2%), and 3.17 million in Germany (down 0.3%).
The report projects this year's auto market growth rate at 2.2%, the same as last year, factoring in global geopolitical instability such as China-Japan tensions. The report said, "The China and Japan markets face the risk of China-Japan tensions, so a sharp downward adjustment is needed," and added, "For Brazil as well, elements such as the spillover of Venezuela-origin geopolitical issues across South America should be considered."
For the domestic market, it projected that growth in domestic demand will slow while exports and production will stay at last year's levels. For domestic sales, the report tallied 1.72 million units, up 1.7% from last year. Sales of domestic brands are forecast at 1.361 million units, up 0.5%, and imports at 358,000 units, up 6.9%. During the same period, exports are expected to rise by about 1,000 units from 2.736 million, and production to increase by 8,000 units from 4.09 million.
The report said, "For domestic demand, imports such as Tesla and Chinese manufacturers could show strength," and analyzed, "Exports face slight downward pressure in key markets, the United States and Europe."
From January to November last year, China, India, and Japan posted high growth rates, while Korea performed relatively well. China, the world's largest market, rose 3.8% to 24.823 million units, accounting for half of the increase in global sales. The United States rose 1.3% to 15.183 million units, India increased 4.1% to 5.07 million, and Japan increased 3.4% to 4.224 million.
During the same period, sales in Korea totaled 1.55 million units, driven by growth in the import market, including Tesla. Tesla sold 55,000 units, more than doubling from a year earlier.