The operating profits of Korea's three shipbuilders (HD Hyundai Heavy Industries, Samsung Heavy Industries, Hanwha Ocean) are expected to surge more than 45% this year from a year earlier, entering a full-fledged stage of a quantum jump in results. As high value-added ships selectively won by the three shipbuilders, which have already secured more than three years' worth of backlogs, are reflected en masse in results starting this year, the industry expects all three companies to post operating margins in the low-to-mid-10% range.
HD Hyundai Heavy Industries, the industry leader, sharply raised this year's order target for the shipbuilding and offshore institutional sector by 82% from a year earlier, signaling confidence in a "super cycle."
According to FnGuide, as of the previous day on the 12th, the 2026 annual combined operating profit consensus for Korea's three shipbuilders came to 6.6091 trillion won. That is up 44.9% from last year's estimated combined operating profit of 4.5613 trillion won.
◇ HD Hyundai Heavy Industries, integration effect and favorable market… operating profit seen in the 3 trillion won range
HD Hyundai Heavy Industries, which expanded by merging with HD Hyundai Mipo at the end of last year, is expected to enter the 3 trillion won range in operating profit this year. Topping 3 trillion won in annual operating profit at HD Hyundai Heavy Industries would be the first time in 16 years since 2010, when the shipbuilding industry was booming, a result seen as the combined effect of launching the integrated entity and favorable market conditions.
According to the securities community consensus, HD Hyundai Heavy Industries' sales this year are projected at 21.6079 trillion won, up about 16% from a year earlier, and operating profit at 3.3891 trillion won, up about 43%. The operating margin is expected to reach 15%, the securities community says.
Market expectations are rising further. Samsung Securities and Korea Investment & Securities Co. estimated HD Hyundai Heavy Industries' operating profit this year at 3.543 trillion won and 3.5091 trillion won, respectively. These figures are up about 69% and 65% from last year's results, respectively.
Han Young-su, an analyst at Samsung Securities, said, "HD Hyundai Heavy Industries is expected to post the best margins among the majors in this cycle," adding, "Profitability is underpinned by the engine business, and with competitiveness in eco-friendly ships and the offshore defense business drawing recent market attention proceeding smoothly, the earnings uptrend should continue."
◇ Samsung Heavy Industries and Hanwha Ocean also near the 2 trillion won operating profit mark
Samsung Heavy Industries is also expected to trace a steep upward trajectory in results. The company's operating profit consensus for this year is 1.4424 trillion won, up about 66% from last year. The operating margin is 11.6% based on expected sales of 12.4481 trillion won.
Some expect Samsung Heavy Industries' actual operating profit to exceed market forecasts by more than 30%, buoyed by concurrent strength in offshore plants and high-priced merchant ship sales. Korea Investment & Securities Co. predicted Samsung Heavy Industries would log operating profit of 1.7006 trillion won this year, a sharp 89% increase from a year earlier, bringing the margin close to 14%.
Kang Kyung-tae, an analyst at Korea Investment & Securities Co., said, "This year will mark the first year Samsung Heavy Industries opens the era of 3 trillion won in annual offshore sales with a single FLNG (floating liquefied natural gas production facility) model," adding, "With the operating margin of the merchant ship institutional sector reaching 14.9%, revenue recognition from the high-priced LNG carriers ordered in 2023 will get into full swing, significantly expanding profit."
Hanwha Ocean will also enter a full-fledged revenue generation phase this year. The securities community expects Hanwha Ocean's operating profit this year to reach 1.7776 trillion won, up about 35% from a year earlier, with an operating margin of 12.6%. Compared to 2024, when it successfully returned to the black (operating profit of 237.9 billion won), that would mean expanding profit more than 7.5 times in two years.
Analyst Kang said, "Although part of offshore sales will be deferred, the high-margin special-purpose ship (defense) institutional sector will drive overall results," adding, "Special-purpose ship sales will reach 1.8 trillion won, up 36% from a year earlier, leading sharp profit growth."
◇ Full-fledged revenue recognition of high-priced order volumes
This wave of bullish forecasts stems from selective order strategies. As docks (shipbuilding slots) reached saturation, shipbuilders adopted a strategy of choosing mainly high-margin ships. A shipbuilding industry official explained, "If last year was about firmly building a profit structure, starting this year, revenue recognition of high-priced LNG carriers and others won at high prices will get into full swing, making it a year when the quality of profit changes completely."
Based on last year's stacked orders, the three shipbuilders plan to set higher targets this year and focus on strengthening fundamentals centered on profitability. HD Hyundai Heavy Industries won a total of 50 ships last year—48 merchant ships and 2 special-purpose ships—for $8.93 billion. While the annual target achievement rate was 91.6%, it showed growth compared with 2024 order results (38 ships, $7.67 billion).
Building on this, HD Hyundai Heavy Industries set this year's order target (shipbuilding and offshore plants combined) at $17.745 billion. That is about 82% higher than last year's target ($9.75 billion, excluding engines and machinery). Reflecting the effects of the HD Hyundai Mipo merger and favorable market conditions, analysis suggests the company raised targets for the shipbuilding and offshore institutional sector excluding engines and machinery.
Hanwha Ocean has not disclosed an order target, but it won a total of $9.83 billion last year, 9.5% above the previous year's $9.98 billion.
On the last day of last year, Samsung Heavy Industries capped the year with an additional order worth 721.1 billion won (about $500 million). With this contract, the company's cumulative orders in 2025 rose to 43 ships totaling $7.9 billion, surpassing the previous year's results ($7.3 billion, 36 ships). It closed the year at 80.6% of the annual target of $9.8 billion.
Analyst Han Young-su predicted, "The improvement in shipbuilders' results is not a temporary phenomenon but a structural change," adding, "This year, with both increases in build volumes and higher ship prices, shipbuilders' profit growth is likely to meet or exceed market expectations."