Chinese automobiles will overtake Japan this year to rank No. 1 in global auto sales. There is an outlook that major countries could strengthen trade barriers to counter the onslaught of Chinese cars.
On the 30th, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun projected that global sales of Chinese cars this year will reach about 27 million units, up 17% from a year earlier. The estimate is based on an analysis of sales results of major automakers from January to November and S&P Global Mobility data. China already rose to No. 1 in auto exports in 2023, and starting this year it will also take the lead in total units sold.
Sales of Japanese cars, which had held the top spot for more than 20 years after overtaking the United States, are forecast to reach about 25 million units this year. Japanese cars hit their peak by selling nearly 30 million units worldwide through 2018. In 2022, Japanese and Chinese car sales differed by 8 million units, but in three years the positions have reversed.
Chinese cars have surged thanks to price competitiveness. Backed by the Chinese government's policy to foster the new energy vehicle (electric, hydrogen, hybrid) industry, related companies sprang up like mushrooms after rain and supply expanded sharply. To survive, they had to cut prices. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, about 23% of new energy vehicle sales in China were taken by low-priced models in the 100,000–150,000 yuan (about 20 million–30 million won) range.
Chinese corporations, bringing these affordable cars, avoided the fiercely competitive domestic market and jumped into global markets. In the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) market, once a stronghold of Japanese cars, Chinese cars are expected to sell about 500,000 units this year, up 49% from a year earlier. As recently as five years ago, Japanese cars boasted a 90% share in Thailand, but this year that plunged to 69%.
In Europe as well, Chinese cars are expected to record sales of about 2.3 million units this year, up 7%. Nikkei said, "The European Union (EU) is imposing additional tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles, but Chinese makers are responding by rapidly increasing the share of hybrid car exports, which are not subject to the measure," and noted, "As major countries erect barriers with tariffs or new regulations to counter Chinese cars and protect their own corporations, protectionism could intensify."