The Polish government has chosen Swedish defense company Saab as the partner for the Orca Project, a new submarine acquisition program worth 4 trillion won. The Korean government and Hanwha Ocean mounted an all-out push, touting superior technology and even offering to transfer an active-duty submarine free of charge, but they could not overcome the entry barriers of the European North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) alliance.
◇ 4 trillion won project goes to Sweden's Saab… assessed as driven by "geopolitical factors"
According to Reuters and others on the 26th (local time), Poland's defense minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz announced the selection of the contractor for the Orca Project, saying, "Sweden's Saab made the best offer in terms of all criteria and delivery schedules, particularly for operational capability in the Baltic Sea."
The Polish government plans to sign a final contract with Saab by the second quarter of next year at the latest and take delivery of the first submarine around 2030. The Polish side estimated the contract value at about 10 billion zlotys (about 4 trillion won). However, local experts believe the total project expense could reach 36 billion zlotys (about 14.5 trillion won) when including weapons systems integration and life-cycle maintenance costs.
The shipbuilding and defense industry says political dynamics within Europe, rather than performance or delivery capability, were the decisive factor in this bidding. Hanwha Ocean, France's Naval Group, Germany's ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems, and Italy's Fincantieri competed, and the industry initially expected a two-way race between Hanwha Ocean, whose submarine performance has been proven, and France's Naval Group, which even hinted at the possibility of supporting nuclear sharing. In fact, the Korean government put forward various proposals to boost the chances of winning, including free transfer of a Jang Bogo-class submarine, maximum-limit loan support, and follow-on logistics support.
However, Sweden's Saab surged late by exploiting its geopolitical advantages. The Swedish side highlighted its geographic proximity to Poland as favorable for follow-on logistics support such as maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO), and even added an offer to buy back Polish-made weapons. The Korean side staked everything on the line, but it failed to clear the threshold of Europe's geographic and political dynamics.
◇ Lack of "real-world proof" of Saab submarines flagged locally
Industry officials have pointed out that the A26 Blekinge-class submarine proposed by Sweden's Saab has never been deployed in actual service. The submarine is characterized by a design that allows operations in the Baltic Sea's shallow depths and complex seabed terrain, but it is still a model that has not yet been fielded.
Polish local media have also raised questions about Saab's delivery capability and unproven performance. Polish defense magazine Defense24 noted, "Given that delivery of the first A26 for the Swedish Navy has already been delayed several times, it is uncertain whether Poland can receive a submarine in 2030," adding, "Bringing in a model without even domestic operational data carries significant risk." It also cited concerns that the Polish Navy initially wanted a 3,000-ton-class submarine, while the selected Saab model is only around 2,000 tons.
By contrast, Hanwha Ocean proposed the 3,600-ton Jang Bogo-III Batch-II, equipped with an air-independent propulsion (AIP) system and lithium-ion batteries to meet the Polish Navy's original requirements for long-endurance submergence and armament, and fitted with a vertical launch system (VLS) as the world's first among diesel submarines.
An industry official said, "While the Jang Bogo-III Batch-II has already been deployed by the Korean Navy and its performance has been proven, the A26 is effectively a blueprint-stage model that even the Swedish Navy has yet to receive," adding, "Purely on submarine technology, Korea's capabilities are regarded as top tier, so expectations were high for this bid."
In addition, before the new submarines are built, the Korean government proposed to resolve the Polish Navy's capability gap by transferring free of charge the 1,200-ton Jang Bogo-I (Type 209) submarine currently operated by Korea's Navy. In the end, however, it is assessed that this could not break Europe's political cohesion.
◇ "Security cooperation tilts toward Europe"
Inside and outside the government and industry, some also say European wariness about an overreliance on Korean-made weapons may have played a role. Korea has already exported K2 tanks, K9 self-propelled howitzers, FA-50 light attack aircraft, and Cheonmu multiple rocket launchers to Poland on a large scale, establishing itself as a key partner in Poland's defense. In this context, entrusting even submarines—core naval assets—to non-European Korea likely forced Poland to consider the views of NATO and European Union (EU) allies.
Some interpret the political dynamics within Europe, linking the United Kingdom and Sweden, as having decisively influenced the selection. Poland is currently working with British defense company Babcock International Group PLC on the Arrowhead 140 frigate program, and there is a view that the UK's influence played a role in the selection of Sweden's Saab, which has close defense ties with the UK.
An industry official said, "From Poland's perspective, it likely needed to align the weight of security cooperation with European countries such as Sweden, a NATO member," interpreting the decision as "choosing a politically stable European partner even while accepting performance risks."