As the liquefied natural gas (LNG) combined cycle gains attention with the development of the artificial intelligence (AI) industry, Doosan Enerbility, a latecomer in gas turbines, is drawing notice as an alternative supplier. The gas turbine market is dominated by the "Big Three" — U.S. GE Vernova, Germany's Siemens Energy, and Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries — which control more than 70% of the market, and their order books are fully booked through 2029.
Doosan Enerbility on 13th signed a contract to supply two 380 MW-class gas turbines to a U.S. big tech (large IT company). Doosan Enerbility plans to supply two gas turbines for an LNG power plant to be built near this corporation's data center by the end of next year. This is the first time Doosan Enerbility has succeeded in exporting gas turbines.
Gas turbines are the core prime movers used to generate electricity at LNG power plants. LNG power generation emits less carbon than coal and can offset the output volatility of renewables such as solar and wind. Gas turbines spin more than 3,000 times per minute, requiring high precision.
According to market research firm Gas Turbine World, global gas turbine orders this year are expected to nearly double from a year earlier. As demand has risen, lead times have lengthened and prices have increased. In the United States, lead times for some large models have reportedly been pushed back up to seven years, and prices have more than doubled.
GE Vernova's gas turbine backlog stands at 29 GW (gigawatts), with slot reservation agreements (SRA) — contracts that reserve production schedules — totaling 21 GW. It plans to ship 10 GW by year-end and add contracts for 20 GW. Contracts for 2028 delivery are already close to being finalized. If you order new gas turbines now, delivery is possible after 2029. Mitsubishi is said to have SRAs in place through 2027–2028.
Heo Min-ho, an analyst at DAISHIN SECURITIES, said, "As Saudi Arabia pays booking fees for 20 gas turbines globally through 2029, the production capacity of GE, Siemens, and MHI is saturated through 2029," and noted, "U.S. AI data center operators are considering purchasing Doosan Enerbility's gas turbines despite them being less proven."
Doosan Enerbility in 2019, together with domestic academia and research institutes, succeeded in localizing large gas turbines for power generation, becoming the fifth in the world to secure gas turbine technology. Doosan Enerbility is in talks to supply more than 10 gas turbines to North American data center developers by 2028. Additional orders are also expected in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar.
Doosan is increasing its market share domestically by supplying gas turbines to state-owned power generation corporations. Its domestic share has risen to around 10%. Recently, it equipped its Changwon headquarters with turbine manufacturing and testing facilities and successfully conducted a full speed full load test of the 380 MW-class gas turbine developed with its own technology.
Doosan Enerbility is also targeting the after-sales service (MRO) market, including maintenance, parts supply, and upgrades. It is pushing to enter the North American maintenance market through its U.S. subsidiary, Doosan Turbomachinery Services (TMS). Because gas turbines have a lifespan of more than 30 years, the maintenance market is larger than the market for the main units.
A power industry official said, "As the growth of the AI industry outpaces the expansion of power infrastructure, LNG combined cycle power generation will become a realistic solution to meet electricity demand."