The share of China-built ships among regular container carriers sailing from Asia to the United States is declining. The industry sees this as an effect of regulations by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). As U.S. rules will tighten through 2028, some expect Korea's influence to grow in the newbuild market.
According to Sea-Intelligence, a Danish maritime analysis firm, the share of China-built ships deployed on the Asia–U.S. West Coast route fell to 25% on the 22nd from 30% on Mar. 3. If the USTR imposes a $50 fee per net tonnage (a metric indicating the volume actually used for transporting cargo or passengers) when Chinese shipping companies or carriers operating China-built ships enter the United States starting on Oct. 14, it is expected to drop to 18% in November.
Shipping companies are preemptively redeploying vessels to Europe or Central and South America before U.S. regulations begin. The fee imposed by the USTR will gradually increase, reaching $140 per ton in 2028.
If fees are imposed, carriers with a high share of China-built ships are expected to bear enormous expense. According to HSBC Research, China's COSCO Group is estimated to incur an annual expense of $2.2 billion (about 3 trillion won) due to entry restrictions.
European carriers with many China-built ships could also be affected. The share of China-built ships at major carriers is Switzerland's MSC 10.5%, France's CMA CGM 16%, Germany's Hapag-Lloyd 2.3%, and Israel's Zim 31.5%.
If U.S. fees remain in place, these carriers are likely to choose Korean shipbuilders when constructing new ships in the future. Early this year, after the United States said it would regulate China-built ships, domestic shipbuilders saw an increase in container ship orders.
From the start of the year through the end of August, Korean shipbuilders won orders for 58 container ships (a 23% share) out of those placed worldwide, already surpassing last year's total of 46. China, which won orders for 405 container ships (87.26%) last year, secured 221 (72.37%) through August.
An industry source said, "From a carrier's standpoint, owning ships that are hard to deploy on the U.S. route, a key lane, is a burden for fleet operations," and added, "If U.S. regulations continue, Korean shipbuilders could see a windfall in the newbuild market."