After the Lunar New Year holidays, the cargo volume heading to the United States has increased significantly compared to the previous year. The volume of goods has grown even more than during the COVID-19 pandemic, when demand surged. Industry analysts suggest that the influx of goods is influenced by the impending implementation of the universal tariff by the Trump administration, which launched on the 20th (local time).
According to Denmark's shipping analysis company Sea-Intelligence, from the 29th of this month to the 26th of next month, the cargo volume from Asia (Far East) to the North America West Coast (NAWC) will total 1,336,203 TEU (one TEU is a 20ft container), which is an increase of 33.3% compared to the same period last year. This is also 2.1% more than the same period in 2021 when the cargo volume increased due to COVID-19, and 34.1% more than the average from 2016 to 2019 (996,107 TEU).
During this period, the berth ratio (the percentage of container ships that are docked or not operating out of the total number of container ships) is 9%, the lowest level in 10 years since 2015. The berth ratio was 22.8% in the four weeks immediately following last year's Lunar New Year holidays, and it was 10.7% for the same period in 2021. The average berth ratio for the four weeks following the Lunar New Year holidays from 2016 to 2019 was 18.3%.
The shipping industry analyzed that the demand to bring goods to the United States before the tariff barriers of the Trump administration come into effect has influenced the increase in cargo volume. According to the National Logistics Information Center, the U.S. maritime cargo handling performance in January 2017, when the first Trump administration was inaugurated, was 8.73 million tons (t), a 19.1% increase compared to the same period of the previous year. Following this, the first six months from January to June 2017 saw a total of 57.5 million tons, a 16.7% increase compared to the same period last year.
President Trump has indicated since before taking office that he would impose large tariffs. China is reportedly discussing plans to impose a 10% tariff starting next month. Tariffs are applied when goods pass through customs, so bringing items to the United States in advance allows for the avoidance of tariffs. A shipping industry insider noted, "The higher freight rates on routes to the United States compared to European routes during the usual off-season should be viewed as a result of the increased cargo volume to avoid tariffs."
The SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index), which reflects the spot rates of 15 container shipping routes for exports from Shanghai, recorded 2,130.81 on the 17th. The freight rate for European routes is $2,279 per TEU, which is a decrease of 121.6% compared to the peak of $5,051 in July of last year, while the freight rates for routes to the U.S. West Coast and U.S. East Coast are $4,232 and $5,960 per FEU (one FEU = one 40ft container), down 47.8% and 39.7%, respectively, during the same period.
Some analysts suggest that changes in shipping alliances have led to the reassignment of fleets, increasing the cargo volume heading to the United States. Sea-Intelligence stated, "This year shows a very rapid increase in cargo volume that cannot be explained by current demand factors compared to previous years." Typically, shipping companies organize their fleets based on cargo trends, but with the implementation of the new shipping alliance system, the cargo volume has increased regardless of cargo trends. Shipping companies will need to conduct fleet restructuring according to the new shipping alliance starting in February.