The fourth quarter and annual corporate performance announcement season for 2024 has started. Amid a prolonged global economic downturn and increasing domestic and external business uncertainties, many corporations are expected to report poor performance.
According to the securities industry on the 12th, Hyundai Motor's consensus (market average forecast) for operating profit in the fourth quarter of last year is 3.1626 trillion won. This represents a decrease of about 9.0% compared to the same period last year and a decrease of approximately 11.7% compared to the previous quarter.
Previously, right after announcing the third quarter results, forecasts for Hyundai Motor's operating profit in the fourth quarter were around 4 trillion won, but they have recently been lowered to just over 3 trillion won.
Kia's forecast for operating profit in the fourth quarter is 2.7654 trillion won, which is an increase of about 12.2% compared to the same period last year. However, this represents a decrease of approximately 4.0% compared to the previous quarter. Kia's operating profit forecast has also been reduced from the previous estimate of 3 trillion won.
Amid the electric vehicle chasm (temporary demand slowdown), the battery industry, which has defended its performance through tax credits under the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), is expected to record substantial losses.
LG Energy Solution reportedly posted an operating loss of 225.5 billion won in the fourth quarter of last year, marking a transition to a loss compared to the same period and the previous quarter. Excluding the advanced manufacturing production tax credit (AMPC) amounting to 377.3 billion won, the loss size increases to 602.8 billion won.
Samsung SDI's forecast for operating loss in the fourth quarter is 137.4 billion won, making a loss highly probable. SK On, which recorded an operating profit of 24 billion won in the previous quarter, is expected to return to the red with an operating loss in the 200 billion won range.
As the recession drags on, both LG Chem and Lotte Chemical are expected to report losses in the petrochemical industry. The operating loss forecasts for the fourth quarter are 150 billion won for LG Chem and 196.9 billion won for Lotte Chemical.
Samsung Electronics and LG Electronics, which previously announced provisional results, recorded performance that significantly undershot market expectations. Samsung Electronics' provisional operating profit for the fourth quarter of last year was recorded at 6.5 trillion won, a decrease of about 30% compared to the previous quarter. This falls approximately 15% short of the market forecast of 7.7 trillion won.
LG Electronics' provisional operating profit for the fourth quarter of last year was 146.1 billion won, a decrease of 53.3% compared to the same period last year. Excluding its consolidated subsidiary LG Innotek, there is a possibility of recording a loss.
In the fourth quarter of last year, SK Hynix is expected to rank first among listed companies in operating profit. The fourth quarter operating profit forecast for SK Hynix is 8.0296 trillion won, an increase of about 14.2% compared to the previous quarter. However, SK Hynix's fourth quarter operating profit forecast was also raised to 8.5 trillion won in October and November but has been slightly downgraded.