Korea Investment & Securities Co. said on the 10th that ROBOTIS(108490) is the only corporations in the sector positioned in an oversupply phase. It maintained a "Buy" recommendation, a target price of 450,000 won, and a second-preferred stock view. ROBOTIS closed at 310,000 won the previous day.
Korea Investment & Securities Co. projected ROBOTIS's mid- to long-term actuator sales to the open-source artificial intelligence (AI) platform Hugging Face will reach 78 billion won. Hugging Face's Robotics subsidiary launched the bipedal robot "MicroDuck" last month.
Choi Geon, an analyst at Korea Investment & Securities Co., said, "ROBOTIS is a direct beneficiary corporations of strong sales of the small robot MicroDuck," adding, "MicroDuck is equipped with 15 units per robot of ROBOTIS's actuator 'DYNAMIXEL XL330.'"
Current preorders for MicroDuck stand at 15,000 units, and based on that volume, ROBOTIS's sales are estimated at about 4.5 billion won. Assuming a sales target of 50,000 units for MicroDuck, sales in the 15 billion won range are expected.
Choi said, "As Hugging Face's robot production moves into full swing after 2027, ROBOTIS's actuator supply volume to Hugging Face will gradually increase," adding, "We expect to supply 3.9 million units in the mid to long term for MicroDuck and the desktop robot RichMini, and estimate sales to Hugging Face at about 78 billion won."
In particular, ROBOTIS continues to receive requests for actuator supply and capacity expansion not only from Hugging Face but also from Chinese humanoid corporations and North American clients.
Korea Investment & Securities Co. explained that ROBOTIS currently has a backlog of actuator orders exceeding about 500,000 units and that the production facilities at its Magok headquarters are operating at full capacity.
Choi said, "First-quarter actuator sales were about 220,000 units, similar to the full-year volume this year, and as second-quarter orders are surging, the oversupply phase for ROBOTIS actuators is being prolonged," adding, "Given that the production capacity at the Magok headquarters is 300,000 units per year, securing additional domestic and overseas production facilities is essential, and with additional facilities in the second quarter, we expect sales of about 520,000 units this year."
The demand environment was assessed as very positive. However, supply could face bottlenecks. The new plant in Uzbekistan is scheduled to start operations in the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year, and the expected capacity (production volume) in 2027 is projected to increase to about 1.5 million units, but orders from global clients are also surging, leading to an analysis that the oversupply phase will continue next year as well.
Choi explained, "Securing a stable Production yield in mass production and the resulting increase in operating rate will be the key drivers for maintaining a high sales growth rate."
Choi also said attention should be paid to changes in the product portfolio when capacity expands going forward. The ROBOTIS actuator series includes DYNAMIXEL X, Q, Y, and P, with the average selling price (ASP) understood to be 400,000 won for X, 600,000 won for Q, 2.4 million won for Y, and 2.5 million won for P.
Choi explained, "When capacity expands going forward, we need to check whether the companywide ASP rises as the sales mix of the DYNAMIXEL Q and Y series increases."