This week (Aug. 31–Sept. 4), Korea's stock market is expected to be influenced by major domestic and overseas economic indicators. Korea's August export performance and U.S. employment data are scheduled to be released.
At the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, where Central Bank chiefs gathered over the weekend, U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chair Kevin Warsh delivered hawkish (favoring monetary tightening) remarks, raising concerns about monetary tightening that are also expected to affect the stock market.
On Aug. 31, the first trading day of the first week of September, the July industrial activity trend will be released, and on Sept. 1, the August export-import trend will come out. With global artificial intelligence (AI) investment continuing, Korea's exports, centered on semiconductors, are expected to have hit a record high.
However, there is an outlook that the July reading of the leading index of coincident composite indicators, which can gauge the economy's future temperature, could turn lower for the first time in 18 months. This reflects the sharp drop in the stock market in July and the Bank of Korea's rate hike, which moved toward monetary tightening.
Byun Jun-ho, an IBK Securities researcher, said, "The leading index of coincident composite indicators is an important economic indicator for predicting the KOSPI," and analyzed that if this indicator is taken as a signal of an economic "peak-out," it could weigh on the stock market.
Byun also emphasized, "If the summer stock market reflected peak-out concerns for AI and semiconductors, it is worth noting that as we enter September, the fall market may reflect concerns about an economic peak-out." Since the domestic market has already undergone a sharp correction since July, the risk that peak-out worries will drag down prices is not great, but if leading, coincident, and lagging indicators all show signs of slowing starting this third quarter, it could weaken expectations for a market rebound.
After the Jackson Hole meeting, U.S. employment data will be released. Kim Yu-mi, an economist at Kiwoom Securities, said, "As key U.S. economic indicators are released after the Jackson Hole meeting, market interest in the Fed's monetary policy could rise again." On the 2nd, the U.S. August ADP new employment index will be released, and on the 4th, the U.S. August unemployment rate will be disclosed. Employment indicators are expected to show a somewhat mixed pattern.
At the Jackson Hole meeting on the 28th, Chair Warsh, delivering the keynote address, hinted at the possibility of a rate hike. Citing recently released inflation indicators, Warsh assessed, "From the standpoint of price stability, one of our mandates, the related indicators are more concerning." Market experts took Warsh's remarks as a signal for a rate increase, and U.S. stocks closed lower.
On the supply-demand front, issues to watch are Samsung Electronics(005930) and SK hynix's share buyback. As the inflow of household funds into the stock market has slowed recently, other corporations have emerged as new buyers.
Kwon Beom-seok, a Samsung Securities researcher, said, "If Samsung Electronics and SK hynix continue their share buybacks at the recent pace, the net buying trend by other corporations is expected to continue for about 30 trading days, or at least a month and a half," adding, "The main net buyers replacing individuals are likely to be 'other corporations,' led by Samsung Electronics and SK hynix."
According to Samsung Securities, Samsung Electronics announced a plan to buy back 15 trillion won of its own shares through on-exchange purchases from Aug. 24 to Nov. 21, and from the 24th to the 26th it has been buying back at a daily pace of 3.3% of the total planned amount.
SK hynix plans to acquire 40 trillion won of its own shares from Aug. 20 to Nov. 19. From the 20th to the 26th, over five trading days, it has been buying back at a daily pace of 2.7% of the planned amount.