This week (Aug. 31–Sept. 4), Korea's stock market is expected to be influenced by major domestic and overseas economic indicators. Korea's August export performance and U.S. employment data are scheduled for release.
At the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, where central bank governors from around the world gathered over the weekend, U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chair Kevin Warsh delivered hawkish (favoring monetary tightening) remarks, raising concerns about monetary tightening that are also expected to weigh on the stock market.
On Aug. 31, the first trading day of the first week of September, the July industrial activity trend will be released, and on Sept. 1, the August export-import trend will come out. As global artificial intelligence (AI) investment continues, Korea's exports centered on semiconductors are expected to have hit a record high.
However, there is a projection that the July reading of the leading composite index of coincident indicators, which can gauge the economy's future temperature, could turn lower for the first time in 18 months. This reflects the sharp drop in the stock market in July and the Bank of Korea's rate hike as it moved toward monetary tightening.
Byun Jun-ho, a researcher at IBK Securities, said, "The leading composite index of coincident indicators is an important economic indicator for predicting the KOSPI," and analyzed that if this indicator is taken as a signal of an economic "peak-out," it could act as a burden on the stock market.
Byun also emphasized, "If the summer market reflected peak-out concerns for AI and semiconductors, it is worth noting the possibility that the fall market in September will reflect peak-out concerns for the broader economy." Since the domestic market has already undergone a steep correction since July, the risk that peak-out worries will drag down prices is not large, but if leading, coincident, and lagging indicators all show a slowing pattern starting this third quarter, it could weaken expectations for a market rebound.
In the United States, employment indicators will be released after the Jackson Hole meeting. Kim Yu-mi, an economist at Kiwoom Securities, said, "As major U.S. economic indicators are released after the Jackson Hole meeting, market interest in the Fed's monetary policy could rise again." The U.S. August ADP new employment index will be released on the 2nd, and the U.S. August unemployment rate will be published on the 4th. The employment indicators are expected to be somewhat mixed.
At the Jackson Hole meeting on the 28th, Chair Warsh, who delivered the keynote speech, hinted at the possibility of a rate hike. Referring to recently released inflation indicators, Warsh assessed, "From the perspective of price stability, one of our mandates, the related indicators are more concerning." Market experts took Warsh's remarks as a signal for a rate hike, and U.S. stocks closed lower.
On the supply-demand front, issues to watch are Samsung Electronics(005930) and SK hynix's share buybacks. As the inflow of household funds into the market has slowed recently, other corporations have emerged as new buyers.
Kwon Beom-seok, a researcher at Samsung Securities, said, "If Samsung Electronics and SK hynix continue their share buybacks at the recent pace, the net buying trend by other corporations is expected to continue for about 30 trading days—at least a month and a half," adding, "The main net buyers replacing individuals are likely to be 'other corporations,' led by Samsung Electronics and SK hynix."
According to Samsung Securities, Samsung Electronics announced a plan to buy back 15 trillion won in treasury shares through open-market purchases from Aug. 24 to Nov. 21, and from the 24th to the 26th it has been buying at a pace of 3.3% per day of the total planned purchase amount.
SK hynix plans to acquire 40 trillion won in treasury shares from Aug. 20 to Nov. 19. From the 20th to the 26th, over five trading days, it has been buying at a pace of 2.7% per day of the planned purchase amount.