IBK Securities said on the 21st that with Moderna's personalized messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) cancer vaccine therapy achieving the world's first success in a phase 3 clinical trial, Alteogen(196170) and ST Pharm(237690), among Korea's pharmaceutical and biotech corporations, are expected to see direct benefits.
Jeong Isu of IBK Securities said, "Moderna's personalized mRNA cancer vaccine 'Intismeran Autogene,' co-developed with MSD, announced positive results in a phase 3 clinical trial for melanoma patients who completed surgery," and evaluated it as "the first case of a personalized mRNA-based neoantigen therapy succeeding in a phase 3 clinical trial."
The combination therapy of Intismeran and MSD's immunotherapy "Keytruda" met both the primary endpoint of recurrence-free survival (RFS) and the key secondary endpoint of distant metastasis–free survival (DMFS). On the day of the announcement, Moderna's share price surged 177%.
Jeong said this clinical success is likely to be an inflection point that changes Moderna's fundamentals. While Moderna had a high reliance on COVID-19 vaccines with pronounced seasonality in revenue, adjuvant therapy to prevent recurrence after cancer surgery lacks seasonality and allows for long-term administration. Intismeran is also in phase 2 and 3 trials for various cancers including melanoma, Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), bladder cancer, head and neck cancer, and renal cell carcinoma.
As the commercialization of mRNA cancer vaccines becomes more visible, expectations are growing for benefits to related corporations in Korea. Jeong pointed to Alteogen as the most direct beneficiary.
Jeong analyzed, "Since the combination drug for Intismeran is Keytruda, the expansion of the adjuvant therapy market is highly likely to lead to increased prescriptions of the subcutaneous (SC) formulation 'Keytruda Qlex,' which applies Alteogen's platform technology, alongside the expansion of Keytruda's treatment areas." Jeong added that MSD's initiation of a phase 3 combination trial of Keytruda Qlex and Intismeran in high-risk stage 1 Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) supports this possibility.
ST Pharm also projected that as global latecomers ramp up development of mRNA cancer vaccines, demand will grow for contract development and manufacturing (CDMO) of supplies for early clinical stages. Jeong said, "Although at an early development stage, market interest is also expected to rise in Korean corporations that have mRNA delivery vehicles and platform technologies, such as Samyang Biopharm(0120G0) and Hanmi Pharmaceutical(128940)."