Target prices for SK hynix, which released record earnings, diverged among securities firms from 1.48 million won to 4.7 million won, a gap of up to 3.22 million won. While most agreed that investment in artificial intelligence (AI) and growth in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) will continue, differing views on how long that trend will last led to wide disparities in target prices.
On the 31st, according to financial data provider FnGuide, 17 securities firms issued reports after SK hynix's second-quarter earnings release. Among them, only two—Korea Investment & Securities Co. and DB Securities—raised their targets, while seven, including Samsung Securities and Hanwha Investment & Securities, lowered them. Eight, including KB証券, SK Securities, and Hana Securities, kept their existing targets. The average target price among these securities firms is about 3.05 million won, more than double the current share price, which plunged after the earnings release to the 1.3 million won range.
SK hynix posted record quarterly results with second-quarter revenue of 7.93187 trillion won and operating profit of 6.05426 trillion won. However, as operating profit slightly missed market expectations, a wave of selling hit, and the share price plunged 9.61% in a single day right after the release. In the securities community, assessments also diverged sharply depending on how the outlook for the sector was interpreted rather than on the results themselves.
◇ Same results, 1.48–4.7 million won… memory cycle outlook split
The most optimistic is Korea Investment & Securities Co. Chae Min-suk, an analyst at Korea Investment & Securities Co., raised the target price 24% to 4.7 million won from 3.8 million won. Chae interpreted the reason second-quarter operating profit missed market expectations not as weaker demand but as shipment timing deferrals. While shipments of high-value memory were pushed to the second half, temporarily lowering the average selling price (ASP), Chae expected DRAM price increases and mass production of HBM4 to be fully reflected starting in the third quarter.
Chae said, "The market is pricing doubts about the persistence of AI investment, but solid fundamentals are being proven in results," adding, "It is time to focus on the direction of corporate value and profits rather than short-term share swings." Reflecting this, Chae raised operating profit forecasts for this year and next to 27 trillion won and 41.8 trillion won, respectively.
KB証券 also kept its 4.2 million won target and judged the current price to be in an "extreme oversold" zone. Kim Dong-Won, head of research at KB証券, said SK hynix's current market capitalization is about 31% lower than that of global DRAM rival Micron and about 10% lower than Samsung Electronics, diagnosing that valuation appeal remains strong. Given that AI memory demand is increasing faster than supply is expanding, Kim also suggested a possibility that a memory supply shortage could persist through 2028.
In contrast, the most conservative view came from BNK Investment & Securities. BNK Investment & Securities cut its target to 1.48 million won from 1.85 million won, presenting the lowest target among securities firms.
Lee Min-hee, an analyst at BNK Investment & Securities, assessed that momentum in memory demand is weakening due to a slowdown in consumer spending and efficiency-driven AI investment. Lee said, "The current price is in a short-term oversold zone, but as corporations continue competitive capacity expansions, concerns about second-half demand slowdown and oversupply will persist," adding, "Any rebound in the share price is also likely to be limited."
Some securities firms raised their investment opinions even while cutting target prices. Kiwoom Securities lowered its target to 2.2 million won but upgraded its rating to "Buy" from "Outperform." The firm judged that the recent plunge has largely priced in market concerns such as a slowdown in AI investment and intensifying competition from China, and that given HBM growth in 2027–2028, the current price is instead an attractive zone.
◇ SpaceX and Tesla also show wide target gaps
Similar wide divergences in target prices can be found overseas. Most recently, SpaceX, listed last month by Elon Musk, is a prime example. Investment banks' outlooks diverged widely over the growth potential of space transportation, satellite communications, and AI infrastructure businesses.
Morgan Stanley set a target price of up to $600 if Starship development and AI operations proceed smoothly, while Citigroup projected as high as $900. In contrast, Morningstar suggested a fair value of $63, and MoffettNathanson set $131, viewing the current price as excessively high relative to the company's results and business value.
Adam Jonas, a Morgan Stanley analyst, said, "In the long run, comprehensive AI services will become the core business model," projecting revenue to grow from $45 billion this year to $319 billion in 2030 and $3.3 trillion in 2040. SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) price was $135, but the previous day's close had fallen to $112.
A similar pattern emerged around Tesla in 2020. At the time, GLJ Research cut its target to $19, citing intensifying competition in electric vehicles, while U.S. asset manager ARK Invest presented a scenario of up to $4,400 if both an autonomous driving network and cost reductions were realized. As assessments of the likelihood of success for future businesses diverged sharply, so did outlooks for corporate value.