This week (27–31), stocks are expected to swing widely as earnings from major U.S. big tech and domestic semiconductor corporations, U.S. monetary policy, and trade issues all come together.
Earnings announcements are scheduled for global hyperscalers such as Microsoft (MS), Meta, Amazon, and Apple, as well as SK hynix(000660), and the U.S. Federal Reserve Board will hold a monetary policy meeting to decide the benchmark interest rate.
During earnings season, investors are expected to focus on whether the expansion of the artificial intelligence (AI) ecosystem is feeding into related corporations' results and whether related investment will expand further. Another key variable is what judgment the Federal Reserve will make on inflation as U.S.-Iran tensions reignite.
On the 20th–24th, the domestic stock market swung sharply as concerns about overheated AI investment, rising tensions in the Middle East, and a surge in international oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields overlapped. The KOSPI, which had been pushed down to 6,500 points on the 20th, recovered the 7,000 level on the 23rd, but slumped back below the 6,700 level on the 24th as panic selling emerged.
As risk appetite weakens, securities firms are also turning cautious. Although the semiconductor supercycle is expected to last a while longer, it will be hard to expect a clear short-term rebound in the index because investors are reacting more sensitively to negatives than positives.
In a somewhat unsettled sentiment environment, U.S. big tech and SK hynix(000660) will report earnings. Experts advise checking not only how much U.S. big tech profits increased, but also whether earnings-backed AI investment will continue and whether the expanded capital expenditures so far are connecting to results.
Lee Kyung-min, a Daishin Securities researcher, said, "Alphabet's earnings, which confirmed solid AI demand, are likely to be a positive leading indicator this earnings season," adding, "Consensus for operating profit in the semiconductor sector on the main board for 2027 is being revised up again, so the share price correction can be used as an opportunity to increase weight."
Lee Jae-won, a Yuanta Securities Korea researcher, said, "If upward revisions to hyperscalers' capital expenditure (Capex) guidance, SK hynix's surprise results, and shareholder-return policies are confirmed, the index could rebound."
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on the 28th–29th is also an important event. A rate hold is highly likely, but attention is on what judgment the Fed will offer on inflation amid recently reignited tensions in the Middle East.
Kim Yu-mi, a Kiwoom Securities economist, said, "Recent inflation indicators continue to slow, so rather than rushing a policy shift, the Fed is more likely to further assess oil prices and inflation trends," adding, "This FOMC is likely to be an event that extends monetary policy uncertainty rather than presenting a clear policy direction."
Meanwhile, the U.S. administration has re-strengthened trade barriers against various countries. On the 23rd, the Donald Trump administration finalized tariffs of 10%–12.5% on 60 trading partners based on Section 301 of the Trade Act. The move came after the expiration of the global 10% tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act. Future U.S. tariff negotiations are expected to affect the market.
In Korea, regulatory changes are scheduled. From the 31st, the basic margin for leveraged ETFs with Samsung Electronics and SK hynix as underlying assets will be raised from 10 million won to 30 million won. As the entry barrier for investment rises, inflows into related ETFs may decrease in the short term.
However, financial authorities expect this measure to ease the concentration of leveraged funds into specific stocks.
Brokerages are recommending defensive investment strategies. Kim Ju-yeon, a Mirae Asset Securities(006800) researcher, said, "With global defense demand expanding due to tensions in the Middle East, orders from domestic defense companies are expected to increase," naming Hanwha Aerospace, LIG Nex1, Hyundai Rotem, and Hanwha Systems as stocks of interest. Kim also advised that bio/health care and high-dividend stocks could be relatively stable investment destinations in a highly volatile market.