This week (27–31), the stock market is expected to swing sharply as earnings from major U.S. big tech and domestic semiconductor corporations, U.S. monetary policy, and trade issues converge at once.
Earnings announcements are scheduled for global hyperscalers such as Microsoft (MS), Meta, Amazon, and Apple, along with SK hynix(000660), and the U.S. Federal Reserve Board (the Fed) will hold a monetary policy meeting to decide the benchmark interest rate.
During earnings season, investors are expected to focus on whether the expansion of the artificial intelligence (AI) ecosystem is translating into results for related corporations and whether related investment will expand further going forward. Another key variable is what judgment the Fed will offer on prices as tensions between the United States and Iran rekindle.
On the 20th–24th, the domestic stock market swung sharply as concerns about overheated AI investment, heightened tensions in the Middle East, and spikes in international oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields overlapped. The KOSPI index, which had been pushed down to 6,500 points on the 20th, recovered the 7,000 level on the 23rd, but slumped back below the 6,700 level on the 24th as dumping emerged.
As risk asset investment sentiment weakens, securities firms are also turning cautious. Although the semiconductor supercycle is expected to continue for the time being, investors are reacting more sensitively to negatives than positives, making a clear short-term rebound in the index difficult to expect.
In a somewhat shaky investment-sentiment environment, U.S. big tech and SK hynix(000660) will announce earnings. Experts advise that, beyond how much U.S. big tech profits increased, it is necessary to check whether earnings-based AI investment will continue and whether the expanded capital expenditures so far are translating into results.
Lee Kyung-min, a Daishin Securities researcher, said, "Alphabet's earnings announcement, which confirmed solid AI demand, is highly likely to become a positive leading indicator for this earnings season," and added, "Consensus for operating profit in 2027 for the semiconductor sector on the Korea Exchange is being revised up again, so stock price pullbacks can be used as opportunities to increase exposure."
Lee Jae-won, a Yuanta Securities Korea researcher, said, "If hyperscalers' capital expenditure (capex) guidance is raised, SK hynix's surprise earnings announcement is confirmed, and shareholder-return policies are confirmed, the index could rebound."
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to be held on the 28th–29th is also an important event. While a freeze in the benchmark rate is likely, attention is on what judgment the Fed will offer on the price situation as tensions in the Middle East have rekindled recently.
Kim Yu-mi, a Kiwoom Securities economist, said, "Recent price indicators continue to slow, so the Fed is more likely to check oil prices and inflation trends further rather than rushing policy changes," and predicted, "This FOMC is likely to be an event that maintains monetary policy uncertainty rather than presenting a clear policy direction."
Meanwhile, the U.S. administration has re-strengthened trade barriers against various countries. On the 23rd, the Donald Trump administration finalized tariffs of 10%–12.5% on 60 trading partner countries based on Section 301 of the Trade Act. This came after the expiration of the effect of the global 10% tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act. The course of future U.S. tariff negotiations is expected to affect the market.
In Korea, a regulatory change is scheduled. Starting on the 31st, the basic deposit for leveraged ETFs with Samsung Electronics and SK hynix as underlying assets will be raised from the current 10 million won to 30 million won. As the investment entry barrier rises, funds flowing into related ETFs could decrease in the short term.
However, financial authorities expect this measure to ease the concentration of leveraged funds in specific stocks.
Brokerages are recommending defensive investment strategies. Kim Joo-yeon, a Mirae Asset Securities(006800) researcher, said, "As global defense demand expands due to tensions in the Middle East, orders for domestic defense companies are expected to increase," and suggested Hanwha Aerospace, LIG Nex1, Hyundai Rotem, and Hanwha Systems as stocks to watch. Kim also advised that bio and healthcare and high-dividend stocks could be relatively stable investment destinations in a highly volatile market.