As global semiconductor stocks tumbled across the board recently, analysts in the securities industry said share prices have fallen excessively beyond fundamentals. With D-RAM (DRAM) prices, which drive the semiconductor cycle, still rising and money flowing into related exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the earnings reports by U.S. big tech companies slated for the end of this month are expected to be a turning point for a rebound.
Lee Jaeman, a researcher at Hana Securities, said in a report on the 20th that "even if we acknowledge concerns about cyclical semiconductors, the recent plunge in share prices looks excessive."
The market is focusing on the fact that shares of memory chip corporations such as SK hynix and Micron have fallen more sharply than TSMC and Nvidia recently. Observers said concerns have been priced in that the memory cycle has passed its peak and it will be difficult to maintain the current high operating margin.
However, actual market indicators are showing a different trajectory from share prices. SK hynix has dropped 43% from its intraday high to its recent low, sliding to levels similar to when its 2022 net profit swung to a loss. By contrast, spot D-RAM prices rose an average of 2% last week and 7% from a month earlier, and investor demand continues, with $4.5 billion flowing into D-RAM ETFs since July and $2.4 billion in the past five sessions.
The researcher said, "We judge that the trigger for a rebound in semiconductor corporations' share prices will be the earnings releases of U.S. hyperscalers starting in late July," adding, "The combined capital expenditure (CAPEX) growth rate of Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon is expected to rise from 80% in the first quarter of 2026 to 83% in the second quarter and 92% in the third quarter." He added, "Given the increase in investment demand, it is also possible to maintain high operating margins for semiconductors."
In particular, whether U.S. big techs beat expectations was cited as the variable that will steer the short-term trajectory of domestic semiconductor stocks.
The researcher said, "Since 2025, Alphabet has not missed consensus on earnings per share (EPS) on a quarterly basis," and analyzed, "After an earnings surprise on revenue, the one-month average share price returns of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix were 11% and 17%, respectively, showing a clear contrast with 2% and -3% after an earnings shock." The researcher added, "For Meta and Amazon, EPS, and for Microsoft, whether CAPEX beats expectations will affect the share prices of global semiconductor corporations."
In the mid to long term, analysts said attention should also be paid to the recovery potential of the former leading sectors. They explained that during rebounds following the dot-com bust, the global financial crisis, the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes, and reciprocal tariff announcements, the sectors that led the previous bull market outperformed the market average and led the rebound.
The researcher said, "In the current KOSPI, the reason we must hold on with semiconductors, hardware and electrical equipment, which were the former leading sectors," adding, "When the index entered a rebound phase, former leaders tended to lead the market again."