This week (the 13th–17th), three events are expected to be the key variables for stocks: the release of the U.S. June consumer price index (CPI), the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, and the start of the second-quarter earnings season for major global corporations.
First, attention should be paid to the U.S. June CPI to be released on the 14th (local time). As the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tilts toward tightening and weighs on global equities, investors are expected to check whether inflation is slowing.
In the securities industry, the view is that if price pressures ease to around the Cleveland Fed's Inflation Now model estimate of about 3.92%, it could trigger stabilization in equities.
Lee Kyung-min of Daishin Securities said, "If the U.S. June CPI result does not deviate significantly from expectations and confirms a slowing trend, the surge in bond yields and the dollar that has weighed on the market will begin to crack," adding, "This is highly likely to ease macro uncertainty and act as a trigger for downward stabilization."
The Bank of Korea (BOK)'s rate decision set for the 15th and remarks by Federal Reserve officials are also important events. Experts see the BOK raising rates for the first time in about three years since Jan. 2023. A key point to watch is whether uncertainty over the pace of future tightening will ease through the release of the Fed's Beige Book and Chair Kevin Warsh's first semiannual monetary policy report to Congress, both slated for the same day.
Second-quarter earnings reports by global corporations are also lined up. Starting with major U.S. bank stocks, results from ASML, TSMC, and Netflix are scheduled to be released in sequence. Attention is on whether the "semiconductor peak-out" (passing the peak) debate, which intensified after Samsung Electronics' earnings release, will be resolved.
Kang Jin-hyeok, a researcher at Shinhan Investment Corp., said, "Even though Samsung Electronics posted an earnings surprise far exceeding market expectations, selling emerged on peak-out debates," adding, "The key is whether the earnings and guidance of U.S. big tech and semiconductor supply chain corporations, which get into full swing this week, can calm the market's doubts and fear about the sustainability of AI investment (CapEx)."
Recently, the domestic market has seen average daily trading value decline and vitality wane, while the volatility index (VKOSPI) remains elevated, creating a distorted structure. As funds concentrate in certain stocks, the market repeatedly sees abnormally large index drops on small negatives amid thinned liquidity.
Kang Jin-hyeok, a researcher at Shinhan Investment Corp., said, "It's an environment where 'low vitality and high volatility' coexist," advising, "Rather than merely following the absolute size of foreigners' net purchases, a framework that narrows exposure by selecting stocks with high transaction concentration and 'net buying intensity' relative to market cap is the way to withstand volatility."