Samsung Electronics will release its preliminary second-quarter results on the 7th. After semiconductor stocks were rattled by concerns about a slowdown in Meta-led artificial intelligence (AI) investment, this is the first set of results from a major semiconductor company, drawing market attention. The securities industry views this announcement not as a simple "earnings season" event but as the first test to verify the recent debate over a slowdown in the memory market.
According to FnGuide on the 6th, the second-quarter consensus (brokerage house average) for Samsung Electronics is revenue of 173.8 trillion won and operating profit of 85 trillion won. Compared with the same period a year earlier, revenue is up 133% and operating profit is up 1,718%. However, the operating profit consensus has edged down over the past month. The prevailing view is that this reflects one-off expenses, including performance bonuses in the semiconductor (DS) institutional sector and employee stock-based compensation costs following a labor-management agreement in May, rather than a deterioration in the memory market.
In fact, brokerage forecasts vary widely from the low 80 trillion won range to the low 90 trillion won range depending on how much provision they reflected. Meritz Securities presented operating profit of 90.1 trillion won even after reflecting 19.3 trillion won in performance bonus provisions, while Samsung Securities reflected 16.3 trillion won and projected 86 trillion won. By contrast, Hana Securities and KB Securities projected 92 trillion won and 90 trillion won, respectively.
Kim Rok-ho, a Hana Securities analyst, said, "We believe the variation by brokerage came from how provisions related to bonuses were reflected in the earnings estimates," and added, "We should focus more on how market forecasts are revised upward after the results are released."
The market is more focused on how investor sentiment changes afterward than on the numbers themselves. Recently, shares of Samsung Electronics saw heightened volatility, giving up the 300,000-won level on the 2nd for the first time in 15 sessions, as potential shifts in Meta's AI investment strategy overlapped with concerns about a slowdown in AI infrastructure spending. However, the securities industry interprets Meta's move not as reducing AI investment but as a process of monetizing existing data centers. It also noted that there is still no evidence to support a reduction in hyperscalers' AI investment or a decline in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) supply contracts.
Kim Dae-jun, a Korea Investment & Securities Co. analyst, said, "KOSPI is expected to remain volatile in July," adding, "For the market to rebound on improving sentiment, we need to see signs of earnings improvement, and Samsung Electronics' preliminary second-quarter results will be that inflection point."
However, strong results do not guarantee an immediate share-price rise. In the first quarter of this year, Samsung Electronics reported a record operating profit of 57.2 trillion won, but shares, which had risen more than 4% intraday, gave back most gains as profit-taking hit. In the fourth quarter of last year and the third quarter of 2025, the market also saw a "sell on news" phenomenon, with late-session profit-taking leading to a lower close after an "earnings surprise." This means what matters more is how far results exceed market expectations and how strong the outlook is afterward.
Na Jeong-hwan, an NH Investment & Securities analyst, said, "For the share price to rise, we need new inflows to absorb the overhang from break-even sellers," adding, "Catalysts such as results that beat expectations or strong guidance can trigger an upward re-rating of fair value." He continued, "The first catalyst for the market at this stage is Samsung Electronics' preliminary results," and explained, "If results significantly beat the consensus, it could signal strength in the memory market and prompt a shift in selling sentiment toward holding and momentum buying."
The securities industry remains optimistic about the medium- to long-term memory cycle. Chae Min-suk, a Korea Investment & Securities Co. analyst, said, "With the strike risk that had weighed on the share price resolved, market attention will refocus on the memory cycle and HBM competitiveness," adding, "Revenue growth from rising HBM market share and a higher average selling price (ASP) compared with rivals will drive earnings growth."
Samsung Electronics' results are expected to mark the starting point of the global semiconductor earnings season. ASML and TSMC will report in mid-month, followed by results from U.S. big techs such as Meta, Microsoft and Amazon. Investors are expected to gauge, through these corporations' AI capital expenditure (CAPEX) plans, whether the recently raised concerns about an AI investment slowdown are temporary noise or a sign of a cycle shift.