As investment in artificial intelligence (AI) continues to expand, an outlook emerged that a shortage in memory semiconductors will persist for at least two years. As memory demand is rising quickly with the spread of AI services while capacity expansion remains limited, Samsung Electronics, the global No. 1 in the memory market, is expected to be the biggest beneficiary, analysts said.
KB Securities on the 1st maintained a "Buy" rating on Samsung Electronics and a target price of 550,000 won. While the target price was unchanged, it presented a positive medium- to long-term earnings outlook, reflecting the potential improvement in the memory cycle driven by increased AI investment.
Kim Dong-Won, head of research at KB Securities, said, "It is expected that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve keeping rates on hold in the second half will increase, raising expectations for an acceleration in AI investment as concerns over rate hikes ease," adding, "Through 2027, memory supply will be effectively very limited due to stagnant capacity expansion, while demand driven by AI proliferation is rising quickly, so it is expected to take at least two years to resolve the shortage."
KB Securities particularly predicted that competition to secure memory will intensify from the second half of this year. As AI demand, which had been centered on data centers, expands to edge devices such as PCs and smartphones with the spread of AI agents, the amount of memory per device is expected to increase significantly.
Kim said, "In 2026, memory price increases are expected to be 308% for DRAM and 256% for NAND, and in 2027, the shortage is likely to deepen further, leaving ample room for additional price gains," adding, "The spread of agentic AI appears set to extend demand beyond data centers to across upstream industries such as PCs and smartphones, leading to higher memory content, so the competition to secure memory is expected to intensify from the second half of this year."
It also projected that the share of memory semiconductors in AI investment will grow rapidly. KB Securities expected global AI investment to exceed $800 billion next year, beating market expectations, and to expand to $1.1 trillion in 2027.
In particular, it analyzed that the share of memory semiconductors in AI investment will rise from 14% this year to 36% next year and to 50% in 2027. This is because demand for high-performance memory such as HBM, DDR5, and eSSD is expected to grow rapidly to improve the performance and quality of AI services.
Kim said, "The broader adoption of AI agents is expected to triple memory demand, and the emergence of the physical AI market is projected to further increase demand more than fivefold," adding, "As securing memory capacity is emerging as the key variable determining the quality and performance of AI services, Samsung Electronics, the world's No. 1 in memory capacity, is expected to be the biggest beneficiary in the phase of expanding AI investment, and the recent share-price correction looks like a buying opportunity."