Hana Securities on the 29th raised the upper end of its KOSPI forecast to 11,450 points from the previously suggested 10,450 points. It said this was because the 2027 KOSPI net profit estimate increased to 946 trillion won.
However, it viewed KOSPI index volatility as having become extremely elevated, with severe concentration. It assessed that this makes it difficult for rotation to occur.
Researcher Lee Jae-man of Hana Securities issued a report the same day, saying, "The previously presented upper end of the KOSPI forecast was 10,450 points, applying a price-earnings ratio (PER) of 9.9 times to the 2027 KOSPI net profit estimate of 890 trillion won," and explained, "The current 2027 KOSPI net profit estimate is 946 trillion won, so even with the same PER applied, it can rise to 11,450 points."
The KOSPI index bottom was seen at 7,900 points. Lee said, "The recent 20-day deviation low of the KOSPI index was 94% in early June, when concerns about a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike came to the fore, and applying this to the current KOSPI puts the bottom at 7,900 points."
It also analyzed that, after a circuit breaker was triggered on the main board, the time it took to recover to the prior level averaged 32 trading days before this year, but shortened to 5–6 trading days this year.
Hana Securities analyzed that volatility in the KOSPI index has recently become extremely elevated. Lee said the VKOSPI, known as the "Korea-style fear index," reached 90 points this month, adding, "This is higher than the peak (89 points) during the global financial crisis."
One reason for the extreme expansion in volatility, it said, is the KOSPI's earnings growth rate.
Lee said, "The 12-month forward operating profit growth rate of the KOSPI is 239% year over year," and analyzed, "A high earnings growth rate can create expectations, but it can also foster concerns about misses versus reported earnings or passing the peak of the growth rate."
On the phenomenon of SK hynix's market cap overtaking Samsung Electronics, it said this is judged to be "one of the signals of extreme concentration and short-term overheating."
Currently within the KOSPI, the net profit share of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix is 72%, with Samsung Electronics at 41% and SK hynix at 31%. Then on the 22nd, SK hynix overtook Samsung Electronics with a market cap of 2,080 trillion won. It analyzed that a reversal in market cap share before a reversal in net profit share is an overheating signal.
Hana Securities saw the KOSPI net profit growth rate peaking this year and an inevitable slowdown in the growth rate starting next year. Excluding Samsung Electronics and SK hynix within the KOSPI, the net profit growth rate outlook is 64% this year and 18% in 2027, lower than Samsung Electronics and SK hynix.
Lee assessed, "Earnings-based rotation within the KOSPI is not easy," adding, "The situation in which it is difficult to get past the wall of semiconductors will continue."