NH Investment & Securities said on the 23rd that results for ultra-large project awards for Hanwha Ocean are expected to be announced in June–July, and analyzed that, if it wins, expectations could grow for a strengthened foothold in the global market and for follow-on orders. It maintained a Buy rating and a target price of 175,000 won.

Hanwha Ocean makes the final shortlist, narrowed to two, for Canada's CPSP submarine program worth up to 60 trillion won, outpacing leading global defense companies. The Royal Canadian Navy is pursuing a submarine procurement program to replace its four 2,400-ton Victoria-class submarines acquired from the Royal Navy in 1998. Photo shows the Jang Bogo III Batch-2 submarine built by Hanwha Ocean. /Courtesy of Hanwha Ocean

Results for key project awards, including a floating production, storage and offloading unit (FPSO) to be deployed in Canada's submarine program and the Venus oil field development project, are expected to be announced this month and next month.

Hanwha Ocean is competing with ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) of Germany for Canada's submarine program. For the Venus oil field development project led by TotalEnergies in the Orange Basin off Namibia, it is competing with SBM Offshore of the Netherlands.

Canada's submarine program is currently at the preferred bidder selection stage, and the signing of the main contract, including price, is expected in early 2028.

Jeong Yeon-seung, an analyst at NH Investment & Securities, said, "We judge that the timing for actual construction revenue recognition will be after late 2029," adding, "Rather than a short-term earnings contribution, it is a meaningful event in terms of entering the NATO market and securing a global submarine export reference."

The Venus oil field development project is an ultra-large FPSO project expected to begin crude production in 2030. Construction revenue from the FPSO is projected to be reflected in earnest from the second half of 2027.

Jeong said, "The Energy Plant Division is currently posting an operating loss due to the burden of fixed costs from a lack of workload," adding, "This award is a core project that will drive profitability improvement for the division." Jeong also noted that the annual order outlook partially reflects the possibility of this award.

In the case of Canada's submarine program, the analysis is that beyond submarine specifications and delivery schedules, it has a strong nature of competition between countries. Accordingly, Jeong said political variables also need to be taken into account.

Jeong said, "At this point, there are limits to a reasonable prediction of the award outcome," adding, "However, if it wins, given that it would enter the NATO market by beating TKMS, the No. 1 global submarine exporter, there is a possibility it will emerge as a leading contender in subsequent expected submarine export competitions in countries such as Saudi Arabia and Greece."

SBM Offshore, which is competing over the Venus oil field development project, is the world's No. 1 offshore facilities engineering corporation. The corporation is participating in the Venus oil field development project bid in cooperation with a Chinese shipyard.

Jeong said, "If Hanwha Ocean succeeds in winning the award, it can strengthen its presence in the global offshore resource development market, which has been expanding recently," adding, "Considering the size of the oil fields in Namibia's waters, there is also potential for additional FPSO orders."

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