"Another signal of the bull market ending is if SK hynix's market capitalization overtakes Samsung Electronics."
On the 22nd, as SK hynix surpassed Samsung Electronics in market capitalization based on common shares for the first time, a securities report from a month ago is drawing attention again.
According to the Korea Exchange (KRX), as of the close that day, SK hynix's market capitalization was 2,080 trillion won, exceeding the market capitalization of Samsung Electronics' common shares (2,066 trillion won). This is the first time it has overtaken Samsung Electronics' common-share market cap.
However, including Samsung Electronics' preferred shares, the reversal has not happened yet. SK hynix's ratio to the combined market capitalization of Samsung Electronics' common and preferred shares was tallied at 92.65%. That, too, is a record high.
With SK hynix's market-cap reversal becoming reality that day, a report published last month by Hana Securities is drawing attention again. At the time, Lee Jaeman, a researcher at Hana Securities, projected that the KOSPI bull market could continue, but also pointed to the possibility of SK hynix overtaking Samsung Electronics in market cap as one of the signals to judge the end of the rally.
In the report, the researcher said, "SK hynix is renewing a record high for its share of market cap within the KOSPI as the No. 2 historically, and it has risen to 85% of Samsung Electronics' market cap (at the time)," adding, "Another signal of the current bull market ending, which is based on profit growth, is a case where SK hynix's market cap overtakes Samsung Electronics."
The report viewed the balance between corporations' profit scale and market capitalization as more important than changes in the market-cap rankings themselves.
The researcher assessed that, given the current semiconductor boom, the expansion of the market-cap shares of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix is a natural phenomenon. In fact, the combined KOSPI market-cap share of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix had risen to 48% at the time, and based on 12-month forward net profit, the two companies' share of KOSPI net profit reached 72%, the analysis said.
However, it saw that if a market-cap reversal occurs while Samsung Electronics' profit scale still exceeds SK hynix's, it could be interpreted as a sign of an overheated market.
According to the report, Samsung Electronics' estimated net profit stands at 280 trillion won in 2026 and 349 trillion won in 2027, still exceeding SK hynix (208 trillion won in 2026 and 272 trillion won in 2027).
The researcher also mentioned the dot-com bubble in 2000. At that time, Cisco Systems overtook Microsoft (MS) and General Electric (GE) to rank No. 1 in U.S. market capitalization, but its net profit scale was far lower than its competitors. The Nasdaq then entered a full-fledged downturn.