After SpaceX carried out the largest initial public offering (IPO) on record, global artificial intelligence (AI) corporations such as OpenAI and Anthropic are also expected to go public this year. In particular, because Mirae Asset Securities sought to secure SpaceX IPO shares, which listed on the 12th, domestic investors are highly interested in subscribing to OpenAI and Anthropic IPO shares.
However, the industry expects it will be difficult for domestic investors to participate in these IPO subscriptions. That is because it is unlikely that domestic securities firms will join the underwriting syndicate for an ultra-large U.S. IPO, much less participate as underwriters.
According to foreign media including Reuters and Bloomberg, OpenAI confidentially submitted a draft S-1 securities registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on the 8th. Recognized with a corporate value of about $852 billion (about 1,288 trillion won) in March, OpenAI is expected to go public as early as this fall.
Anthropic also submitted a confidential IPO filing to the SEC on the 1st. It is said to have been valued at $965 billion (about 1,445 trillion won) during a recent funding round. The industry expects Anthropic to list as early as October.
Although listings by these "AI big fish" are imminent, there is a strong chance it will be a "party for others" that domestic investors find hard to join. This is because no domestic securities firms are expected to participate in the underwriting syndicates for OpenAI and Anthropic IPO shares.
According to the industry on the 18th, it is realistically difficult for domestic securities firms to participate as underwriters in these IPOs. It is not easy to secure any portion of the offering from local lead underwriters that operate based on global networks.
Mirae Asset Securities was able to be included in the SpaceX IPO underwriting group thanks to establishing its footing by investing early when SpaceX was unlisted. In contrast, in the cases of OpenAI and Anthropic, domestic securities firms have not made prior equity investments, so their negotiating power is seen as weak.
Even if they join the underwriting group, another risk is that the number of IPO shares can be cut at the discretion of the lead underwriters. In particular, Goldman Sachs, which served as a SpaceX lead underwriter and entirely cut Mirae Asset Securities' IPO allocation, is said to be joining as a lead underwriter for OpenAI and Anthropic.
According to Bloomberg, the IPO lead underwriters for Anthropic are Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase, while those mentioned for OpenAI include Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and JPMorgan.
An industry official said, "Typically, U.S. IPOs allocate about 70%–80% to institutions, making it hard for retail participation," adding, "In particular, given that the risks of failing to secure overseas IPO allocations stood out through the recent SpaceX case, it will be difficult for domestic securities firms to actively roll out U.S. IPO subscription services for the time being." Recently, the Financial Supervisory Service began an inspection of Mirae Asset Securities for failing to secure SpaceX IPO allocations.
There is also speculation that NH Investment & Securities, which currently operates a U.S. IPO agency service, could seek allocations through a local agent. However, the company explained that because agency services are also structured so that allocations can be reduced at any time at the discretion of local U.S. lead underwriters, NH Investment & Securities has no immediate plans to offer subscriptions for OpenAI or Anthropic IPO shares.
Domestic regulations are also cited as a hurdle. To conduct a public offering for domestic investors, the issuer must submit a securities registration statement to the financial authorities 15 business days before listing. Because it is unlikely that OpenAI and Anthropic will submit securities registration statements directly to the financial authorities, and because the U.S. IPO timetable does not align with domestic disclosure schedules, the industry views subscriptions for retail investors as difficult. In fact, during the SpaceX IPO process, a public offering for domestic retail investors fell through due to related procedural issues.