After SpaceX pulled off the largest initial public offering (IPO) ever, global artificial intelligence (AI) corporations such as OpenAI and Anthropic are also expected to go public this year. Interest among domestic investors is high in subscribing to OpenAI and Anthropic IPO shares, especially because Mirae Asset Securities had attempted to secure SpaceX IPO shares that listed on the 12th.
However, the industry sees it as unlikely that domestic investors will be able to participate in these IPO subscriptions. That is because it is not only difficult for domestic brokerages to join the underwriting syndicate of a mega U.S. IPO, but their chances of joining as underwriters are also slim.
According to Reuters, Bloomberg, and other foreign media, OpenAI privately submitted a draft S-1 securities registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on the 8th. Recognized for a corporate value of about $852 billion (about 1,288 trillion won) in March, OpenAI is expected to list as early as this fall.
Anthropic also submitted a confidential IPO filing to the SEC on the 1st. It is said to have been valued at $965 billion (about 1,445 trillion won) during its recent fundraising. The industry expects Anthropic to list as early as October.
Although listings of these "big fish in AI" are imminent, it is likely to become "someone else's party" that domestic investors will find hard to join. That is because no domestic brokerages are expected to participate in the underwriting syndicates for OpenAI and Anthropic.
As of the 18th, the industry says it is realistically difficult for domestic brokerages to join as underwriters during these IPOs. It is not easy to obtain an allocation of shares from the lead banks on the ground, which operate based on their global networks.
Mirae Asset Securities was able to be included in the SpaceX IPO underwriting group thanks to having built its position by investing early when SpaceX was unlisted. In contrast, for OpenAI and Anthropic, domestic brokerages are seen as having low bargaining power because there are no cases of them having made prior equity investments.
Even if they do join as underwriters, another risk is that the allocation of IPO shares could be cut at the discretion of the lead managers. In particular, Goldman Sachs, which served as a lead for SpaceX and entirely cut Mirae Asset Securities' IPO allocation, is reported to be joining as a lead for OpenAI and Anthropic.
According to Bloomberg, the IPO leads for Anthropic are Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase, while those for OpenAI include Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, and JPMorgan.
An industry official said, "Typically, U.S. IPOs allocate 70% to 80% to institutions, which makes it hard for retail investors to participate," adding, "Especially after the recent SpaceX situation highlighted the risks of failing to secure overseas IPO allocations, it will be difficult for domestic brokerages to actively roll out U.S. IPO subscription services for the time being." Recently, the Financial Supervisory Service launched an inspection into Mirae Asset Securities for failing to secure SpaceX IPO shares.
There is also speculation that NH Investment & Securities, which currently operates an agency service for U.S. IPOs, could move to secure allocations through a local agent. However, NH Investment & Securities explained that the agency service structure also allows allocations to be cut at any time at the discretion of local U.S. leads, so it has no immediate plans to offer subscriptions for OpenAI or Anthropic.
Domestic regulations are also cited as a hurdle. To conduct a public offering for domestic investors, the issuer must submit a securities registration statement to the financial authorities at least 15 business days before listing. The industry believes subscriptions for retail investors will be difficult because it is unlikely that OpenAI and Anthropic will submit securities registration statements directly to the financial authorities, and U.S. IPO timelines do not align with domestic disclosure schedules. In fact, during the SpaceX IPO process, a public offering for domestic retail investors fell through due to related procedural issues.