As the KOSPI index, which surged more than 8% in a single day on the 21st, heads back toward 8,000 points, domestic and overseas securities firms have said the KOSPI could climb to 10,000 points this year. Although there are worries about "speeding" as the KOSPI shows an unusually sharp rally this year, they said the stock gains are based on earnings improvements, leaving room for further upside.
The KOSPI closed the day at 7,815.59, up 8.42% (606.64 points) from the previous trading day. After intraday topping 8,000 points on the 15th, the index saw a steep correction, but this surge recouped most of that drop.
With the market rebounding strongly, expectations grew in the securities industry that the KOSPI could rise further to reach 10,000 points. Nomura Securities, a global investment bank (IB), raised its KOSPI target for this year to 10,000–11,000 points from the previous 7,500–8,000 points in a report released on the 20th.
Nomura Securities said the outlook is based on corporate earnings and a return-on-equity (ROE)-led cycle. The report said, "Commodity memory and high bandwidth memory (HBM) are in a supercycle, which will be the key driver of KOSPI earnings growth and ROE in 2026–2027," adding, "The artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure sector, including memory/HBM, power equipment, energy storage systems (ESS), and nuclear power, will generate sustainable ROE over the next five years."
Kiwoom Securities also said the KOSPI has a high chance of surpassing 10,000 points. Han Ji-young, a Kiwoom Securities analyst, said in a report the same day, "The domestic stock market is in an earnings-driven rally in which the earnings growth rate is outpacing the stock price increase," adding, "Macro uncertainty, which recently provided a pretext for market corrections, has also entered a stabilization phase." The assessment is that the United States and Iran have recently neared an agreement, crude prices have weakened accordingly, and the surge in U.S. interest rates is stabilizing.
Han said, "On the premise that the earnings consensus (the market average forecast) for companies listed on the Korea Exchange does not get revised up further and continues through the end of the year, applying the long-term average price-earnings ratio (PER) of 10 times suggests a scenario in which the KOSPI breaks through 10,000 points is realistic."
Han added, "It is true that we are now experiencing aftereffects of speeding following the sharp rally, and macro uncertainty is raising intraday volatility," but noted, "It is worth noting that the momentum for a rally that can offset macro burdens has not been exhausted."
Hana Securities also offered a "ManSPI" outlook. On the 18th, Hana Securities projected this year's KOSPI net profit at 689 trillion won and the 2027 net profit at 853 trillion won, and said that if the current earnings estimates materialize, the domestic market could enter the 10,000-point era.
Lee Jae-man, a Hana Securities analyst, said, "Since 2010, the KOSPI's average PER is 9.96 times," adding, "If the index prices in 2027 net profit through the end of this year, the KOSPI's market capitalization would reach 8,499 trillion won, which translates to 10,380 points."