After the KOSPI index broke through the 8,000 mark and then underwent a steep correction, investors are focused on whether it can reclaim 8,000 points. The market is voicing expectations that Nvidia's earnings release set for the 21st and the listing of single-stock leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix on the 27th could trigger a rebound in stocks.
However, experts said the advent of single-stock leveraged ETFs could instead become a factor that increases index volatility.
Single-stock 2x leveraged and inverse 2x ETFs for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are scheduled to launch on the 27th of this month. Eight asset management firms are preparing to list single-stock ETFs, and with a limit of two products per firm, a total of 16 products are expected to list.
If single-stock leveraged ETFs using the No. 1 and No. 2 market cap stocks on the main board as underlying assets debut, a considerable amount of capital is expected to flow into the market. Some also expect this could prompt the index to rise.
It is no exaggeration to say this year's index rally has been led by the two stocks, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. Samsung Electronics has surged 118% this year, and SK hynix 171%. There is also an outlook that investors who missed the semiconductor rally so far will actively invest in leveraged ETF products in hopes of high returns.
But excessive expectations are ill-advised. Experts note that the impact of ETF listings on actual supply-demand and share prices may be limited. Ha Jae-seok, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, said, "Despite the sharp share price gains over the past year, flows into domestic leveraged ETFs are effectively estimated to be net selling," adding, "The correlation between existing leveraged ETFs and share prices is not high."
According to NH Investment & Securities, while 740 billion won flowed into KODEX Semiconductor Leverage and TIGER Semiconductor TOP10 Leverage, 4.5 trillion won left KODEX Leverage, resulting in an overall net selling trend.
Also, even if new investment demand comes in, if switching trades among existing spot holders or semiconductor leveraged ETF investors account for a large share, the supply-demand effect may not be significant.
A similar trend is seen overseas. Citing the U.S. market, where single-stock leveraged ETFs developed earlier, researcher Ha explained, "Even during a phase after the second half of 2025 when funds were flowing out of leveraged ETFs tied to Tesla and Nvidia, those stocks continued to rise," and "Conversely, MicroStrategy saw ETF inflows regardless of its share price trend, revealing a divergence."
There are even warnings that leveraged ETFs are more likely to act as a factor that amplifies volatility. Park U-yeol, a researcher at Shinhan Investment & Securities, citing U.S. single-stock leveraged ETF cases, said, "For large blue chips, skewness and kurtosis both increased after leveraged ETF listings," adding, "In such cases, extreme values occur more frequently, strengthening a lottery-like characteristic."
Particularly, it is worth noting that volatility can expand during the closing price formation window. Researcher Na explained, "Leveraged ETFs must rebalance their portfolios daily to track a multiple of the one-day return, and the rebalancing flow tends to concentrate right before the market close," adding, "This can become a factor that amplifies volatility during the closing price formation process."