As analysis shows that only a tiny minority makes revenue in prediction markets, a bet on whether U.S. President Donald Trump will insult someone is drawing attention with a high win rate.
At Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, an activity has been underway since on the 11th under the theme "Will Trump publicly insult someone on?" Betting dates are posted almost every day.
This prediction is based on remarks from official responses such as on the social networking service Truth Social or in answers to reporters' questions. If President Trump insults a specific person, a "Yes" or "No" result is posted at midnight each day in U.S. local time. Calling a specific person "weak, stupid, loser," using derogatory language, or belittling someone is considered an insult.
This bet has recorded a win rate of over 90% except on the 19th and 28th. As it logs a high win rate in a prediction market where only a few make revenue, investors are satirizing it as a way to copy money.
For example, if President Trump insults someone on May 11, a participant who bet $100 on "Yes" receives about $109, and a person who bet $100 on "No" receives about $860. Betting where the probability is lower yields a larger payout. People close to President Trump or those who can read President Trump's mind well can easily make money in this setup.
Solidus Labs, a virtual asset market surveillance corporations, analyzed that from December last year to February this year, about half of the $16 million in revenue generated in major politics-related prediction markets flowed to an extremely small 1% of all wallets participating in Polymarket.
In a report, Solidus Labs said, "Prediction markets exhibit structural polarization in which only a small number of traders with ample capital and technical superiority make money."
In Korea, Polymarket is classified as an illegal gambling site, and a Korean person who participates in betting on Polymarket can be fined up to 10 million won.