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If I had to pick the most regrettable deal right now, it would be missing SpaceX eight years ago.

As U.S. space company SpaceX has begun the process to list on the Nasdaq, the investment banking (IB) industry is belatedly recalling that Korea's corporations had multiple chances to invest. Had they decided to invest then, they could have bought at one-tenth of the price now being discussed, but it is said that people involved at the time walked away because the market capitalization seemed too large and the goal of "conquering Mars" looked too far-fetched.

The crewed spacecraft Crew Dragon of the U.S. private space exploration company SpaceX, founded by Elon Musk, lifts off. /Courtesy of SpaceX

According to IB industry officials on the 30th, the SpaceX investment memorandum (IM) first circulated domestically in 2018. There were opportunities afterward, but SpaceX's nose kept getting higher, and 2018 was effectively the last time when anyone(?) could readily get access.

According to the industry, in 2018 a new asset management firm founded by a member of the Hyundai family's collateral line sought to raise funds to acquire less than 0.1% of SpaceX's outstanding equity. The target size was a total of 15 billion won, and SpaceX's valuation at the time was reportedly set around 23 trillion won ($20 billion). That was about one-hundredth of the 2,200 trillion won valuation now cited for SpaceX's listing.

The firm was said to have approached all the major domestic financial institutions at the time. It emphasized as strengths the founder's Hyundai family background and the fact that the 15 billion won raise was not large. Moreover, SpaceX was a technology company led by Elon Musk, who drew attention through Tesla.

Domestic financial institutions, however, turned away from investing in SpaceX. Not only major national pension funds and mutual aid associations but also securities firms and capital companies declined to commit to the Hyundai family collateral line's fund to acquire SpaceX secondary shares. Around the same time, domestic financial institutions focused more on content companies such as Big Hit (now HYBE) and Bluehole (now Krafton).

The main reasons for shunning SpaceX were that it was "too expensive and unrealistic." It was difficult for Korean financial institutions to commit to an unlisted company that had not yet turned a profit and raised around $500 million (about 550 billion won) with each new round. Also, a 23 trillion won valuation made applying multiples impossible.

On top of that, the assessment of "lack of realism" proved decisive. The IM prepared at the time included SpaceX's Mars vision, such as "conquering Mars" and "multi-planetary." Domestic commitment officers were said to have "thrown up their hands." One person who reviewed the IM at the time recalled, "It made me think there really are a lot of oddballs in the world."

Major global institutions moved in the opposite direction around the same time. The Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan (OTPP) is representative. It built a separate growth capital investing "Teachers' Innovation Platform" (TIP) focused on corporations that disrupt existing industries with technology and create new opportunities, and chose SpaceX as its first investment.

OTPP made clear that SpaceX was not an unproven, fledgling startup as the basis for its decision. It noted that since being founded by Elon Musk in 2002, the company had recorded more than 75 successful launches and was the first to successfully reuse an orbital-class rocket. That differed from Korea's assessment.

A composite image of Elon Musk, the founder of SpaceX, with Mars. Musk has announced a plan to relocate 1 million people to Mars. /Courtesy of Chosun DB

The first in Korea to put money into SpaceX was Mirae Asset Group. After four years of shunning by domestic financial institutions, it began investing in 2022 and deployed capital a total of three times through 2023. Mirae Asset Capital formed the fund and Mirae Asset Securities participated as a major limited partner (LP).

Mirae Asset Group's bet on SpaceX is seen as a success. SpaceX is slated to go public this year. Its post-listing valuation is cited at 2,200 trillion won. Given that SpaceX's value was 160 trillion won at the time of Mirae Asset Group's first investment, the firm is expected to recoup at least 10 times its investment.

An IB industry official said, "Had domestic financial institutions put money into the 2018 fund to acquire SpaceX secondary shares, they could have generated returns exceeding Mirae Asset Group's by more than 100 times," while adding, "It was possible only because Chairman Park Hyun-joo, the founder with strong ownership, was leading it."

Korea Investment Holdings also barely joined recently. Korea Investment Partners, a VC, bought secondary shares previously held by SpaceX employees and others for about $10 million (about 14.3 billion won) last year. The valuation at the time of purchase was about 580 trillion won ($400 billion). Although it had risen 25 times from 2018, the firm placed a bet.

Given this, some are calling for a separate investment track like OTPP's TIP. Even if opportunities arise to invest or commit to unlisted innovation asset transaction such as the 2018 SpaceX secondary trade, the structure leaves major domestic institutions little choice but to repeat the same shunning as before.

The government has launched the Public Growth Fund, deploying 150 trillion won over the past five years. The structure is 15 trillion for direct investment, 35 trillion for indirect investment, 50 trillion for infrastructure financing, and 50 trillion for ultra-low-interest loans. The 10 key advanced strategic industries—AI, semiconductors, biotech, secondary batteries, and robots among them—are the main targets, but the core is domestic-only investment, not overseas.

An investment officer at a domestic financial institution said, "There is no guarantee that the flow missed once with SpaceX won't repeat with the next Musk-level asset," adding, "With the global concentration of assets accelerating, it is time to start discussing the creation of a global innovation investment track like TIP."

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