As Goldman Sachs floated the outlook of the KOSPI reaching the 8,000 level, investors, paradoxically, showed skepticism rather than cheers. That is because when Goldman Sachs offered rosy forecasts in the past, the index coincidentally turned downward a few months later.
On the 18th (local time), Goldman Sachs said in a report that "as fundamentals across Korean semiconductors and industrials continue to improve, profits will increase 220% year over year," and raised its 12-month KOSPI target from 7,000 to 8,000. From a valuation perspective, it assessed that the forward price-earnings ratio (PER) is about 7.5 times, still undervalued compared with the historical average.
However, some in the market are interpreting Goldman Sachs' positive outlook as a peak signal and are raising their guard. It is because of the old jinx that whenever it fired celebratory shots, the index turned lower. We looked back at cases from the past when the KOSPI index had been on a rally: the 2010–2011 auto-chem-refining rally (automobiles, chemicals, refining), the memory supercycle in late 2017, and the COVID-19 episode in 2021.
First, in December 2010, when the auto-chem-refining rally was in full swing, Goldman Sachs rolled out an optimistic view that the KOSPI would reach the 2,700 level within a year. It cited as grounds an improving macroeconomic environment amid expanding global liquidity from the U.S. economic recovery and strengthening export momentum, and it expected earnings for companies listed on the main board to increase 13.7%.
Thereafter, four months later in April 2011, the KOSPI rose about 9% from the 2,000 level to the 2,180 level, but five months later in September it fell about 22% to the 1,690 level. The index then moved sideways in a 1,700–2,150 range for about five years. It first broke through the 2,700 level that Goldman Sachs suggested in December 2020.
In December 2017, during the semiconductor supercycle, Goldman Sachs said of Samsung Electronics that "excessive concerns about the memory semiconductor cycle have been priced in," and maintained a "buy" rating with a target price of 3.52 million won (about 70,000 won after the stock split). This contrasted with Morgan Stanley, which lowered its rating at the time citing a decline in NAND flash prices and a slowdown in DRAM conditions.
Samsung Electronics' share price rose to 52,000 won four months later in April 2018, then plunged 26% to the 38,000-won range in December 2018, a year later. In a new report in September 2018, Goldman Sachs downgraded its view on the semiconductor equipment sector from "attractive" to "neutral," citing concerns about oversupply of memory chips such as DRAM.
A similar pattern appeared in 2021, when the liquidity-driven market continued after COVID-19. Goldman Sachs forecast that earnings of KOSPI-listed companies would grow 81% in 2021 and 21% in 2022, and that the index could rise to the 3,700 level. Four months later in June 2021, the KOSPI climbed above the 3,300 level, up about 3% from the 3,200 level at the time, but five months later in November it slid to the 2,800 level, down 15% from the peak.
Subsequently, on Nov. 21, 2021, Goldman Sachs said, "Korea's macro outlook is solid, but the global environment is turning unfavorable," and lowered its investment view from "overweight" to "market weight." It also cut its KOSPI target index from 3,700 to 3,350. The index then kept falling, dropping to the 2,150 level in September 2022, and after moving sideways in a 2,150–2,800 range for about four years, it finally recovered its previous high (the 3,300 level) in September 2025.
Still, experts note that it is difficult to apply past failures directly to today's market. In the past, the stock market moved in a range as a consumer electronics–centered semiconductor cycle, such as mobile phones, repeated, but now, analysts say we are at the start of an earnings upturn where surging data center demand and supply shortages intersect.
Yeom Seung-hwan, director at Ebest Investment & Securities, said, "The current KOSPI is in a rising market reflecting expectations for earnings improvements driven by the value-up policy and expanded investment in artificial intelligence (AI)," and added, "Rather than simply applying past cases, it is important to continuously check whether the grounds for the rise remain in place."
Kwak No-seon, a professor in the Department of Economics at Sogang University, also said, "Rather than drawing firm conclusions about the future based on past cases, what matters is the underlying basis," and explained, "There may be volatility in the middle, but the judgment that the rise will be maintained is dominant in light of improving results in industrials such as semiconductors, shipbuilding, and defense."