Shinhan Investment & Securities said on the 13th that conflict over control of the Strait of Hormuz is intensifying after negotiations between the United States and Iran broke down, noting that risks are expanding from energy to logistics.
On the 11th, the United States said it would temporarily suspend negotiations with Iran. The next day, U.S. President Donald Trump declared a plan to blockade Hormuz (maritime control), and the market sees this as a breakdown in talks.
Lee Dong-heon, a research fellow at Shinhan Investment & Securities, said, "Trump's negotiation demand effectively amounts to dismantling the nuclear program, which conflicts with Iran's desire for recognition of civilian nuclear activities," and interpreted the situation as "Trump, needing quick results, is for 'pressure over negotiation,' while Iran, prioritizing regime stability, is for 'enduring over compromise.'"
Hormuz, through which about 20% of global crude shipments pass, is Iran's only tangible card. Lee said that the nuclear program is a negotiating card, but Hormuz is an "immediate response tool," explaining, "Pressure through nuclear talks has limited effect, but maritime control delivers a direct blow."
Lee also said, "Risks are deepening from energy to logistics. Not only crude prices but the entire spectrum of maritime logistics—petrochemical products, natural gas, and more—will stall, affecting the real economies of Asia's manufacturing countries."
Shinhan Investment & Securities noted that on the energy side, logistics structure matters more than crude prices. Lee said, "Even after the Iran situation ends, there is a strong chance it will lead to supply-chain dispersion through liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply reallocation, supply-chain reconfiguration, and increased LNG investment in the United States."
He added, "In defense and special-purpose vessels, rising maritime conflict risks have increased demand for navies, missiles, and surveillance systems," and said, "Shipbuilders will expand business through global collaboration on special-purpose vessels and investment in local shipyards, undergoing long-term structural change."