On Apr. 6–10, the KOSPI rose on the back of Samsung Electronics' strong first-quarter results and the impact of a "two-week truce" between the United States and Iran. However, after surging 6% on the 7th on the truce news, the KOSPI fell 1% on reports of Israel's airstrikes in Lebanon, showing high volatility depending on headlines.
This week (13–17), U.S.-Iran negotiations are still expected to be the main market driver. Although the two sides have agreed to a temporary truce, they continue to clash during talks to end the war.
In particular, alongside whether Middle East tensions ease, the normalization of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting stabilization of international oil prices are seen as key variables. If oil prices stabilize, expected inflation and market interest rates could fall, easing concerns about U.S. currency tightening. If the won's weakness also calms, there is a possibility that foreign capital inflows will continue.
The market is leaning toward the possibility of an end to the war. Park Sang-hyun, an analyst at iM Securities, said, "Both the United States and Iran are likely to want an end to the war, and from President Donald Trump's perspective, there is more to lose than gain if the war resumes," adding, "(The Iran war) is cautiously tilted toward optimism."
If geopolitical risks ease, the market's focus is likely to shift back to corporations' earnings. Na Jeong-hwan, an analyst at NH Investment & Securities, said, "Samsung Electronics' results beat market expectations, raising hopes for earnings season," and projected, "Sectors and stocks with high earnings improvement visibility will likely take the lead."
Notably, on the 15th, the finalized March trade figures will be released, which will show export results for domestic semiconductor corporations. Shin Eol, an analyst at Sangsangin Investment & Securities, explained, "Given that the contribution of high bandwidth memory (HBM) by item and the share of semiconductor exports to China could influence consensus revisions for second-quarter results at Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, it is necessary to check these details."
Key U.S. economic indicators are also scheduled for release. If geopolitical tensions ease, market attention is expected to focus on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) currency policy. On the 14th, the U.S. producer price index (PPI) will be released, followed by the Beige Book, the Federal Reserve's economic assessment report, on the 15th.
Shin said, "March is the point when the rise in energy prices due to the Iran war is reflected, so the PPI could come in high," adding, "If core PPI stabilizes, the energy shock may prove to be one-off, but if even core prices rise, expectations for rate cuts within the year could weaken significantly."
The Beige Book to be released on the 15th is a regional economic sentiment report ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) scheduled for the end of this month. If the report increases mentions of a slowdown in hiring and consumption, expectations for rate cuts could strengthen, while more mentions related to inflation could be interpreted as a hawkish signal.
From an investment strategy perspective this week, if Middle East tensions ease, sectors with improving earnings—such as semiconductors, telecommunications, and cosmetics—could draw attention. Conversely, if the war drags on, energy and defense sectors are expected by some to outperform the broader market.