On Apr. 6–10, the KOSPI index rose on Samsung Electronics' strong first-quarter results and the "two-week cease-fire" between the United States and Iran. However, after jumping 6% on the 7th on the cease-fire news, the KOSPI fell 1% on reports of Israel's airstrikes on Lebanon, showing high volatility depending on the headlines.
This week, on the 13th–17th, the stock market is still expected to be driven mainly by the war situation between the United States and Iran. Although the two countries entered cease-fire talks on the 11th (local time), the negotiations broke down as Iran did not accept demands to abandon nuclear weapons.
In particular, disagreements continue over control of the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global oil shipments. The United States is demanding the immediate reopening of the strait, while Iran is sticking to opening it only after a final agreement.
As a result, the potential for greater volatility in international oil prices is coming into focus. If international oil prices again exceed the $100 per barrel level, pressure from high inflation and a strong dollar could intensify, raising concerns about stagflation. In particular, if the won continues to weaken, foreign capital flows could swing back to net selling.
Still, there are signs in the market that, in the mid to long term, more weight is being placed on the possibility of a cease-fire. Park Sang-hyun, an analyst at iM Securities, said, "Both the United States and Iran are likely to want a cease-fire, and for President Donald Trump, there is more to lose than gain if the war resumes," adding, "We cautiously place more weight on optimism regarding the Iran war."
If geopolitical risks ease, the market's focus is likely to shift back to corporations' earnings. Na Jeong-hwan, an analyst at NH Investment & Securities, said, "As Samsung Electronics' earnings beat market expectations, anticipation for the earnings season is growing," and projected, "Sectors and stocks with clear visibility on earnings improvement will likely take the lead."
Notably, on the 15th, the final March export-import figures will be released, which will reveal export performance for domestic semiconductor corporations. Shin Eol, an analyst at Sangsangin Investment & Securities, explained, "It is necessary to check the contribution of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) by item and the share of semiconductor exports to China, as these could affect adjustments to second-quarter earnings forecasts for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix."
Major U.S. economic indicators are also scheduled. On the 14th, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released, followed by the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, an assessment of economic conditions, on the 15th.
Shin said, "March is the point at which the rise in energy prices from the Iran war is reflected, so the PPI could come in high," adding, "If core PPI stabilizes, the energy shock could prove one-off, but if even core prices rise, expectations for rate cuts within the year could weaken significantly."
The Beige Book, to be released on the 15th, is a regional economic sentiment report ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for the end of this month. If references to a slowdown in employment and consumption increase in the report, expectations for rate cuts could strengthen, while more mentions related to inflation could be interpreted as a hawkish signal.
In terms of this week's investment strategy, if Middle East tensions ease, sectors with improving earnings—such as semiconductors, telecom, and cosmetics—could come into focus. On the other hand, if the war drags on, energy and defense sectors are expected to potentially outperform the market's return.