At 10 a.m. on the 2nd, as U.S. President Donald Trump delivers a national address related to the war with Iran, analysts in the securities industry advise focusing not only on whether he simply declares an end to the war but also on issues such as ▲whether shipping will resume in the Strait of Hormuz ▲demands for expense sharing by allies ▲whether military pressure will be maintained ▲and how the expense burden of the war will be handled.
Mirae Asset Securities said in a report that President Donald Trump is likely to claim in the address that U.S. forces have achieved the main objectives of the war with Iran. It noted he could declare a de facto "victory," emphasizing that the core goals have been met by destroying Iran's navy, ballistic missiles, and missile production facilities and blocking Iran's potential to possess nuclear weapons.
There is also talk that Trump could reiterate his earlier stance that he will end the war within two to three weeks. Analysts say he may seek to buy time to shift into a negotiating phase by sending the message that victory has already been achieved, or signal that the war is entering its final stage.
However, because he could announce that military pressure will be maintained even after the end of the war, there is advice to watch the direction of future policy. Earlier, Trump said U.S. troops would "withdraw fairly quickly" from Iran, while emphasizing that, if necessary, they could return to carry out precision strikes on Iranian targets.
The issue of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is also cited as a key variable. Kim Seok-hwan, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities, said, "President Trump said oil prices would fall sharply when the war ends, but the shipping issue caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz was not a direct objective of this war," adding, "We cannot rule out the possibility that he will shift responsibility for this issue to other stakeholders."
There is also talk that he could demand expense sharing from North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies. Kim said, "President Trump may point out that NATO allies did not provide sufficient support for the United States to achieve its objectives in the war with Iran," adding, "In an extreme scenario, he could even raise the possibility of the United States withdrawing from NATO to increase pressure."
The issue of war expenses is also a major sticking point. Kim added, "President Trump recently said he could ask Arab countries to share war expenses and stated he would continue related discussions," adding, "However, in the case of this military operation against Iran, there is also a view that there is not enough justification for the international community to bear the expenses."