After U.S. President Donald Trump said he would end the Iran war early, prediction markets show a lower probability that U.S. ground forces will be deployed to Iran and a higher likelihood of an early end to the war.

According to Polymarket, the world's largest betting site, as of 9 a.m. on the 1st, participants put the chances of the war between the United States and Israel and Iran ending by the end of this month at 38%. That was up 13 percentage points from the previous day. Responses saying it would end by the 15th of next month rose to 48% on the day from the 30% range at the end of last month. The outlook that U.S. forces would wage ground combat in Iran by the end of this month fell to 57% from 61% the previous day.

U.S. President Donald Trump. /Courtesy of Yonhap News

Polymarket is a prediction market platform where users bet on a range of topics, including politics, society, and sports, to earn revenue depending on the outcome. In Korea, it is regarded as an illegal gambling site, and a Korean person who participates in betting on Polymarket can be fined up to 10 million won.

Polymarket previously drew attention for predicting Trump's return to power earlier and higher than traditional polling institutes. At the time, Polymarket showed Trump's winning probability at 63% and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris' at 36%.

On the 1st, on Polymarket, the world's largest virtual asset betting site, the chance that the war between the U.S.-Israel and Iran ends is projected at 38% by the end of this month and 48% by the middle of next month. /Courtesy of Polymarket

A site has also appeared that uses various market indicators to display the so-called "TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out)," the idea that President Trump always gets scared and backs down. Drawing on past cases, it is based on the observation that when indicators such as the S&P futures drawdown from the peak, the volatility (VIX, Volatility Index), the U.S. 10-year Government Bonds yield, oil prices, the dollar index, and presidential approval ratings reach certain levels, President Trump backs down.

According to the site's TACO Index, oil prices (WTI, West Texas Intermediate) have already reached 100%. That means that in past cases, when WTI exceeded $100 per Barrel, President Trump backed down. The U.S. 10-year Government Bonds yield and the VIX, which quantifies investors' fear, currently stand at 62% and 51%, respectively.

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