As the Iran war enters a protracted phase, the securities industry projected that securing feedstock for refining and petrochemical firms in Asia will become significantly difficult from mid-April. It also offered the view that there are no recommended stocks in the energy and chemical sectors until the Middle East crisis is resolved.
Analyst Yun Jae-sung at Hana Securities argued in a report titled "Outlook favors prolonged Iran war" that the view the Iran war will drag on is dominant and that a conservative stance is needed until the situation is resolved.
Yun based this argument on experience attending CERAWeek 2026, the world's largest energy forum, held from the 23rd to the 27th. Yun attended a session whose panel included James Mattis, the 26th U.S. secretary of defense, retired four-star admiral James Ellis, a senior adviser at the State Department, and a professor specializing in the Middle East. "Every expert who took part in that session foresaw difficult negotiations," Yun said.
The likelihood of a forced opening of the Strait of Hormuz was also rated low. "Iran's cruise missiles, fast boats, and naval mines can continuously threaten merchant ships and warships," Yun said. "Adding modern naval mines that are difficult to detect and clear makes 24-hour vigilance realistically very hard."
The chances for negotiations are also low. Iran laid out demands for the next two years that include a guarantee against war on Iran, war reparations, and the withdrawal of U.S. bases. "Iran's demands are at a level extremely difficult for the United States and Israel to accept," Yun said, adding, "To obtain what it wants, Iran may escalate or endure through a war of attrition, so only a strong, alliance-based economic solution should be presented."
Yun also argued that attention should be paid to the possibility of changes in the positions of Middle Eastern countries. With Middle Eastern nations dissatisfied over what they see as insufficient U.S. consultations, China could step in as a mediator between Iran and Middle Eastern countries, he analyzed. He also said the possibility cannot be ruled out that Iran, Russia, and China will attempt to build a coalition.
He judged that even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened, a normalization process would be necessary. Fully loaded tankers must pass first, and then empty tankers must enter and empty out full tanks before oil-producing countries can produce crude. Considering tanker operations and restoring refining facilities, some analyses suggest it could take up to eight to nine months.
"Domestic refining and petrochemical companies' materials and supplies will be largely depleted by mid-April, and considering a four-week berthing period, the possibility of utilization rate adjustments will begin to surface from mid- to late April," Yun said. "There are no stocks to recommend until the Middle East crisis is resolved."