On the 28th, after the United States and Israel attacked Iran, stocks and gold prices fell, but bitcoin rose instead, drawing attention. Analysts say the rise came as institutions moved in, betting that bitcoin had hit a bottom.
According to the virtual asset industry on the 24th, from the 28th to the 20th, bitcoin rose about 7.8%. During the same period, the S&P 500 fell 5.4% and the Nasdaq dropped 4.8%, while gold slid 9.1%.
In the virtual asset industry, some say bitcoin has built a bottom. After hitting a record 177 million won on Oct. 10 last year, bitcoin fell about 45% up to just before the Middle East war. Over the same span, the S&P 500 rose 5% and gold gained 19%.
A bottom signal for bitcoin also shows up in mining metrics. According to the virtual asset Blockchain platform CryptoQuant, the "bitcoin Puell multiple" stood at 0.6 right after the Middle East war. That is the lowest level in about three years since December 2022.
The Puell multiple is the value of bitcoin mined in a day divided by the daily average mined over the past year, showing how profitable miners are compared with the past year. A reading of 4 or higher indicates overheated issuance, while 0.4 or lower suggests miner profitability has dropped sharply and bitcoin is undervalued.
Bitcoin miners are currently in the red. According to on-chain data analysis platform Checkonchain, the average expense to mine one bitcoin is about $88,000 (about 131.6 million won), roughly 20% higher than the current price (about $70,000).
As the view spread that bitcoin is in a bottom zone, institutions turned to buying. According to virtual asset data platform SoSoValue, spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) saw total inflows of $2.0 billion (about 2.987 trillion won) for four straight weeks.
Vikram Subburaj, chief executive of Indian virtual asset exchange Giottus, said, "The four-month trend of net bitcoin outflows has reversed. Wallets holding 1,000 bitcoin or more—so-called whales, or large bitcoin investors—have been accumulating on the recent pullback."