After the boy band BTS concert held at Gwanghwamun over the weekend, HYBE shares plunged more than 15% as disappointed investors sold. Still, the securities industry says the drop is excessive and views it as a buying opportunity.
Jiin-hae, a research fellow at Shinhan Investment & Securities, said, "The audience at the Gwanghwamun concert was far smaller than the initially expected 260,000, coming in at about 42,000, and controversy over excessive control overlapped with that, spreading negative public opinion around the new album and the domestic comeback stage," and noted, "This appears to have led to disappointed selling."
However, the actual performance is assessed as solid, unlike the market reaction. Ji said, "BTS set a career high with 4 million in first-week sales for the new album," and explained, "The Gwanghwamun live concert also ranked No. 1 overall on Netflix globally and No. 1 in the United States, showing that their global influence and ripple effect remain at the top level."
Jeong Ho-yoon, an analyst at Korea Investment & Securities Co., said the scale of the upcoming world tour bears watching. Jeong said, "A total of 82 world tour dates are scheduled through the first quarter of 2027," and forecast, "Assuming an average of 60,000 attendees per show, total attendance would be about 4.8 million, and if the average ticket price (ATP) is assumed at 300,000 won, ticket revenue alone would reach about 1.4 trillion won." Jeong added, "Considering album sales and concert-related MD revenue, there is ample room for additional earnings growth."
Jeong projected HYBE's revenue and operating profit this year at 4.2 trillion won and 535.3 billion won, respectively. That would be up 57.9% and 972.3% from a year earlier.
Park Jun-hyeong, an analyst at SK Securities, also said, "This concert was broadcast live via Netflix to about 190 countries worldwide, and it reaffirmed content competitiveness in 77 countries including Korea, the United States and Japan," and assessed, "Given the likely contribution to future results, this week's price correction is a buying opportunity."