After CES 2026, expectations for the robotics industry have surged, sending Korea's robot-themed stocks sharply higher. But market experts say current share prices have already over-reflected an excessive "future value premium" relative to earnings and advise investors to avoid indiscriminate chase buying of names with unclear fundamentals.
According to the Korea Exchange (KRX) on the 19th, KODEX Robot Active ETF, which was 26,275 won at the start of the year (Jan. 2), rose 26.16% to 33,150 won the previous day. The ETF holds Korea's robotics industry corporations including Samsung Electronics, Rainbow Robotics, ROBOTIS, Hyundai AutoEver, Doosan Robotics, and SPG. Over the same period, Hyundai Motor (76%), Hyundai AutoEver (28%), Rainbow Robotics (52%), SPG (34%), and Hyulim Robot (92%) surged.
It is seen that expectations for the commercialization of robots spread across the market after CES 2026, lifting related stocks in unison. In particular, the unveiling of Boston Dynamics' Humanoid Robot "Atlas" heightened expectations that human labor could be replaced in industrial settings, and investor sentiment was further stoked when Tesla said it would mass-produce the humanoid "Optimus" by 2026. Buying spread not only to finished robot corporations but also to corporations that supply core components such as actuators.
Inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are also cited as a factor supporting the rally. One researcher said, "As the domestic ETF market has become more active, passive ETFs are continuously adding large market-cap corporations," and noted, "A structure is forming in which already elevated corporate values move further into premium territory."
Experts warn that valuations (corporate value) for some robot stocks have become excessively high and entered a "premium" phase. Corporations like Hyundai Motor, which run existing businesses while expanding into robots, can be assessed relatively stably, but they say the fact that even loss-making corporations have jumped sharply on simple growth expectations is clearly a burden.
In the robotics industry, which is currently in an early growth stage, the price-to-sales ratio (PSR) is mainly used as a corporate value metric. PSR is the ratio of market capitalization to sales. While the price-earnings ratio (PER) is typically used to gauge corporate value, PSR is used in the early stage, when profits have not yet materialized, to reflect top-line growth potential. However, investors should note that volatility is high because earnings power has not been confirmed.
PSRs for major names are in lofty territory. Rainbow Robotics, a KOSDAQ-listed Humanoid Robot corporation, trades at 451 times PSR and 7,180 times PER. ROBOTIS, a maker of robot actuators, also has a PSR above 100 times. SPG (PSR 8 times) and Hyulim Robot (PSR 7 times), both robot parts makers, are relatively lower, but their price levels versus earnings exceed 200 times and 500 times, respectively, which are high.
Even compared with leading global corporations, Korean robot stocks are overvalued. Even Tesla, a global corporation, trades around 15 times PSR and 279.88 times PER. Hyundai Motor, with its traditional manufacturing base, records 2.3 times PSR and 14.77 times PER. Compared with China's UBTECH Robotics, which trades around 35 to 45 times PSR, the Korean market's premium is high.
That said, experts emphasize that the industry's growth potential must be considered alongside high valuations. Yeom Seung-hwan, an executive director at Ebest Investment & Securities, said, "It is true we are in a premium phase now, but you should not decide whether to invest in growth corporations solely on valuation," adding, "Corporations with strong technology and growth potential can remain attractive investments even at high valuations."
In the end, the key is technology and customers, analysts say. Yeom said, "Only corporations that have secured core competitiveness in humanoids, actuators, and robotic hands can justify high valuations." A researcher in the robotics field said, "The most important factor for growth stocks is whether they have secured customers," and explained, "In particular, corporations that supply to large corporations such as Nvidia have secured both technology and a revenue base, which becomes an important yardstick for assessing future earnings visibility."
In that case, the future share-price trajectory is likely to follow a path similar to the secondary battery industry in the past. A researcher well-versed in the industry said, "In the early stage, broad-based gains emerge on expectations, but from the point when mass production becomes visible, stock-price differentiation by corporation begins in earnest," diagnosing that "depending on mass-production plans and execution, share prices currently in a premium state will also diverge."