As the possibility grows that the war between the United States and Israel and Iran will drag on, concerns are also rising that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could be prolonged.

As gasoline prices at gas stations in Seoul surge to nearly 2,000 won on the shock of a U.S.-Israel and Iran war, the government considers setting a price ceiling. The government plans to comprehensively review other options, including expanding fuel tax cuts and releasing strategic reserves, monitor domestic oil price trends further, and then decide whether to invoke the price cap system. The photo shows a gas station in Seoul on the 8th. /Courtesy of Yonhap News

On the 9th, IBK Securities said the hard-line standoff between the United States and Iran is persisting, raising the possibility that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could be prolonged.

Byun Jun-ho, an analyst at IBK Securities, said, "Oil prices are surging and concerns about a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz are being reflected in financial markets," adding, "As ships are being held and Middle Eastern countries' oil production is halted, risks of rising oil prices are expanding, and there is growing discussion of alternative overland transport due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz."

Reasons cited for the heightened likelihood that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will be prolonged include the selection of Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of Iran's deceased supreme leader Ali Khamenei, as Iran's next leader after U.S. and Israeli airstrikes; the possibility of a ground war; and the possibility that China and Russia could support Iran.

First, if Mojtaba Khamenei is chosen as the next leader, he is widely seen as likely to continue Iran's hard-line policy toward the United States, inheriting the existing stance.

Also, U.S. President Donald Trump recently abruptly canceled training for the 82nd Airborne Division, the U.S. elite airborne unit, heightening fears of a ground troop deployment.

Byun added, "The war between Ukraine and Russia has been prolonged because the West supported Ukraine, and similarly, if China and Russia support Iran in this crisis, the situation is likely to drag on."

Meanwhile, as the likelihood grows that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will be prolonged, interest has begun to rise in alternative overland transport systems.

Byun said, "According to the International Finance Center, there are three pipelines that can partially replace the Strait of Hormuz, and expanded throughput on these lines could ease the risk of rising oil prices," but added, "However, because of capacity limits and vulnerability to strikes, there is significant skepticism over whether they can provide sufficient substitution."

The three pipelines cited from an International Finance Center report are the East-West pipeline through Saudi Arabia, the Abu Dhabi–Fujairah (Habshan–Fujairah) pipeline through the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline through Iraq and Türkiye.

Byun said, "Crude shipments through the three overland pipelines could reach a daily maximum of about 10 million barrels, covering roughly half of the Strait of Hormuz's flow, but due to fires from strikes and bottlenecks, the actual alternative volume would likely be far smaller," adding, "We can consider an alternative effect equivalent to about 15% of the Strait of Hormuz volumes."

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