As tensions between the United States and Iran escalate, major Asian stock markets were relatively calm on the 2nd. However, with the Korea stock market closed and related volatility not yet reflected, some noted that investors should be wary of a potential short-term increase in volatility.

U.S. President Donald Trump on the 28th local time formalizes the start of strikes on Iran. In an eight-minute video posted on his social media Truth Social, Trump says, "A short while ago we began major combat operations inside Iran," confirming the U.S. attack on Iran. Trump also states on his Truth Social that "Khamenei, one of the most evil figures in history, is dead."/Courtesy of Trump Social Media X screen capture.

According to the financial investment industry on the 2nd, Japan's Nikkei 225 finished transaction at 58,083, down 797.27 points (1.35%) from the previous session. It plunged more than 2% in early trading but pared losses in the afternoon.

At the same time, China's Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,186.64 points, up 23.762 points (0.67%) from the previous transaction, achieving a rebound. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index finished transaction at 26,200.16 points, down 430.38 points (1.62%). While the main indexes saw a temporary expansion of shocks due to geopolitical risks, buying flowed in toward the end of the session.

In contrast, the Korea stock market was closed for the substitute holiday for March 1 Independence Movement Day, so global volatility stemming from the U.S.-Iran conflict has not yet been priced in. As a result, there is a possibility that short-term volatility will expand right after the open. Still, experts see limited potential for this shock to spread into a structural negative.

Kim Jeong-hwan, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities, said, "In the short term, risk asset aversion is likely to be strong, but after uncertainties ease, it is worth focusing on 'recovery resilience.'" Citing that semiconductor exports hit a record high of $25.2 billion in February, up 160.8% from a year earlier, based on the export trends announced on the 1st, Kim evaluated that the domestic market's fundamentals remain solid.

However, if tensions in the Middle East are prolonged, some advise watching whether the Strait of Hormuz will be blocked. The Strait of Hormuz is a key route through which about 27% of the world's seaborne crude oil passes, and if a blockade materializes or persists, it could lead to a sharp rise in global oil prices. This could increase valuation pressure, especially on growth stocks.

Kang Hyeon-gi, a researcher at DB Financial Investment, said, "It is hard to deny that the recent decline in U.S. inflation was mainly due to falling oil prices," adding, "If oil prices do not fall further from $66 per barrel, oil's contribution to U.S. inflation will shift from minus (-) to plus (+) starting in the second quarter of this year."

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