As "artificial intelligence (AI) fear" rattles U.S. stocks, analysts in the securities industry said it is necessary to watch for the rise of growth sectors from the perspective of creative destruction rather than AI-driven destruction.
On the 22nd (local time), Citlini Research released a report titled "The global intelligence crisis in 2028." The report presents a near-future scenario two years from now, saying AI innovation triggers a major financial crisis in 2028.
According to iM Securities, the report puts forward "ghost gross domestic product (GDP)" as its core concept. It emphasized that as AI development contributes to productivity gains, the GDP growth rate could show a high pace in the mid- to high-single digits, but that this abnormal economic structure will become reality as growth fails to translate into increased consumption.
Park Sang-hyun, a researcher at iM Securities, said, "As the AI industry grows, tasks such as coding, analysis, legal, and finance are automated, and the resulting surge in layoffs of office and white-collar workers leads to growth without consumption."
In particular, the report warned that as this growth without consumption leads to a deterioration in corporations' revenue, corporations will again expand AI investment to cut labor costs, creating a cycle—"AI growth → high unemployment → growth without consumption → mass layoffs and expanded AI investment"—in which an AI-driven vicious cycle in the economy repeats.
However, analysis suggests the AI industry's growth should not be approached as simple destruction or fear, but as creative destruction.
As examples, iM Securities cited how Motorola declined after the iPhone emerged and how Yahoo went into decline as Google rose.
Park said, "Historically, as technological innovation or advancement unfolded, new growth industries rose while existing mainstay and traditional industries became sunset sectors," and analyzed, "Even if an AI-driven destruction scenario materializes, for that to happen, AI investment among corporations or among countries will be pursued more competitively and forcefully."
Park added, "Rather than AI-driven destruction, we need to watch for the rise of growth industries from the perspective of creative destruction," and said, "Following the Magnificent Seven, it is time to watch which corporations or industries will lead the AI growth and evolution cycle."