With the KOSPI index breaking through the 5,800 level, 6,000 points are now in sight. In the last week of Feb. (23–27), the earnings release by U.S. chipmaker Nvidia is expected to be a variable for the domestic stock market. If the third Commercial Act amendment bill passes the National Assembly, the market is expected to gain additional upward momentum.
On the 16th–20th, the stock market opened only on the 19th–20th due to the Lunar New Year holiday closure. Even though it was just two days, the KOSPI index jumped more than 300 points (5.48%), from 5,507.01 to 5,808.53, setting a record high again. The KOSDAQ index also surged 4.33%.
The rally was especially pronounced in the semiconductor sector. SK hynix and Samsung Electronics, the leading domestic semiconductor stocks, rose 7.84% and 4.91%, respectively, over two days, achieving "190,000 electron" and "950,000 nix."
Experts advised that this week, investors should consider the reemergence of concerns about an AI overvaluation, the possibility that related corporations' earnings may fall short of market expectations, and profit-taking that can occur when the market is at a record high.
Na Jeong-hwan, an analyst at NH Investment & Securities, said, "In the U.S. stock market, sector rotation is underway, with uncertainty about AI profitability concentrating in software," adding, "Domestically, the strategy should stay centered on AI infrastructure such as semiconductors, power equipment, nuclear power, and energy storage systems (ESS), while increasing investments in neglected sectors whose net profit forecasts have recently been revised upward." Na picked energy, health care, and media and entertainment stocks as sectors to watch.
Nvidia, a core corporation in the AI Semiconductor ecosystem, is expected to serve as a barometer for the semiconductor cycle this week with its earnings release. Nvidia will release its fourth-quarter 2026 (Nov. 2025–Jan. 2026) results and outlook around 7 a.m. on the 26th Korea time.
Nvidia's revenue is estimated at $65.6 billion (about 95 trillion won), up about 60% on-year. Its earnings per share (EPS) estimate is $1.52, up about 71% on-year, which is somewhat high versus expectations.
However, more important than the headline numbers are whether profitability metrics such as guidance and gross profit margin (GPM) are solid. Because Nvidia is a major high bandwidth memory (HBM) customer of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, the results of those indicators could have a significant impact on the share prices of related domestic stocks. Na said, "If uncertainty eases in part, the market's focus will shift from concerns about AI profitability to growth visibility."
In addition, the new chips scheduled to be unveiled at Nvidia's annual developer conference "GTC 2026" in March and the earnings due on the 26th from AI customer management corporation Salesforce, Inc. are also expected to influence market sentiment, including easing concerns about AI encroachment in the software sector.
Whether the third Commercial Act amendment bill, which centers on mandating the cancellation of treasury shares, will be handled at the February extraordinary session of the National Assembly is also important. The bill passed a subcommittee of the Legislation and Judiciary Committee on the 20th, led by the ruling party, and has a high likelihood of being brought to the plenary session on the 24th. Beneficiaries of the third Commercial Act amendment bill are cited as sectors with a high proportion of treasury shares, such as securities and holding companies.
On the 26th, the Bank of Korea's monetary policy committee is scheduled to meet. While the base rate is expected to be kept on hold, it will be necessary to check the assessment of and policy stance on domestic economic fundamentals—such as consumer sentiment, real estate, and the exchange rate.
Jeong Hae-chang, an analyst at Daishin Securities, said, "With semiconductor earnings leadership continuing, we recommend 'overweight on pullbacks' for leading sectors with solid earnings support, such as defense and shipbuilding," adding, "The KOSPI's long-term average forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is in the low 10s, and considering the trend of earnings upgrades, it remains undervalued compared with major global countries."