While the securities industry expects Samsung SDI's weak earnings to continue for the time being, analysts say results will gradually recover within this year on the back of expanding sales of energy storage systems (ESS) in North America. Accordingly, major brokerages raised their target prices for Samsung SDI.
Target prices by brokerage are as follows: ▲ iM Securities 450,000 won ▲ DB Securities 480,000 won ▲ Mirae Asset Securities 500,000 won ▲ Shinhan Investment & Securities 395,000 won ▲ Samsung Securities 420,000 won ▲ SK Securities 450,000 won.
According to the 2025 fourth-quarter results Samsung SDI released earlier, revenue rose 3% on-year to 3.9 trillion won. Operating loss came to 299.0 billion won, remaining in the red, but it met market expectations of 3.6 trillion won in revenue and a 301.4 billion won operating loss.
Jung Won-seok of iM Securities said, "Small batteries fell slightly quarter over quarter due to the slowdown in the U.S. housing market and the depletion of excess inventories in the market," but noted, "In the electric vehicle (EV) medium-to-large battery segment, a one-off compensation payment occurred due to clients failing to meet minimum purchase volumes, and ESS shipments expanded by about 40% quarter over quarter, sharply increasing receipts from the advanced manufacturing production credit (AMPC)."
However, the loss-making trend is expected to continue in the first quarter of this year. Jung estimated Samsung SDI's first-quarter 2026 revenue at 3.4 trillion won, up 7% on-year, with an operating loss of 272.0 billion won. He said the seasonal off-peak in the electronic materials segment and weakening demand for EV batteries will weigh on results.
On a full-year basis, he projected a significant narrowing of losses. Jung said, "Stellantis, a key North American client, has begun operating the joint-venture plant, and in Europe, supply for a new project for Hyundai Motor is scheduled," adding, "On top of that, with BMW, the largest client, selecting CATL as the main battery supplier for its EV platform in the second half of 2025, a decline in market share is inevitable."
Even so, he estimated, "Considering compensation for clients' failure to meet minimum purchase volumes, price hikes following higher lithium prices, and the easing of fixed-cost burdens due to the SPE plant's conversion to ESS production, the decline in EV medium-to-large battery revenue will be limited to about 2% on-year."
In the mid to long term, he viewed the U.S. policy environment as a positive for the ESS business. Jung projected, "U.S. administration regulations on China-made ESS starting in 2026 will provide structural growth opportunities for domestic battery cell makers," adding, "Accordingly, Samsung SDI's ESS institutional sector operating profit will surge from about 83.0 billion won in 2025 to about 1.4 trillion won in 2028."
However, he drew a line on the recent market buzz about Humanoid Robot-related expectations. He said, "By 2030, the global battery market for humanoid robots is unlikely to reach even 1 trillion won," adding, "Caution is needed regarding short-term stock price spikes based on that narrative."