Mirae Asset Securities said on the 26th that it is time to expect a first-quarter earnings surprise for Krafton. It maintained a Buy rating and raised the target price to 390,000 won. Krafton's previous trading day closing price was 238,500 won.
Mirae Asset Securities explained that since January, when promotions normalized, a sharp rebound in revenue has been observed for "Game for Peace (the Chinese version of Battlegrounds)."
Researcher Lim Hee-seok at Mirae Asset Securities said, "Based on Sensor Tower iOS data, the January average daily revenue for Game for Peace is estimated to be more than double compared with the fourth quarter," and added, "Compared with the period before last year's Lunar New Year update took effect, the average daily revenue for the same period in 2026 is estimated to have increased 34% year over year."
At the same time, he analyzed that rather than worrying about weak fourth-quarter results, it is time to look for a first-quarter earnings surprise. Krafton's fourth-quarter revenue last year is projected at 931 billion won, with operating profit of 81 billion won, indicating deteriorating profitability. Revenue is expected to rise 51% year over year, but operating profit is expected to fall 62%.
Lim said, "The weak fourth-quarter operating profit stems from reduced China revenue due to adjusting the intensity of Game for Peace promotions and about 80 billion won in one-off expenses."
First-quarter revenue, during which a recovery in the mobile segment will be observed, is forecast at 1.231 trillion won, with operating profit of 462 billion won. Revenue would increase 41% year over year and operating profit 1%, and it is expected to beat the consensus (revenue 1.087 trillion won, operating profit 396 billion won).
Lim explained, "Depending on the results of the scheduled Game for Peace Lunar New Year update, there is room for additional upward revisions," adding, "We judge this to be a phase where strong short-term momentum (upside potential) can emerge."
He added, "If an additional rise in revenue is observed after the February Game for Peace Lunar New Year update, earnings momentum will kick in in earnest," and analyzed, "From March onward, one can expect the implementation of active shareholder-return policies."