With the KOSPI reaching 5,000 points on the 22nd, analysts in the securities industry said that to bring the KOSPI index to 6,000 points, it will be important to "fill the gap" in sectors that have risen relatively less.
Shinhan Investment & Securities analyzed that the KOSPI's climb to 5,000 was not a target achieved by a one-off theme, but the result of a structural rally that progressed from tariff risk easing → semiconductor acceleration → industrials broadening and a new framework for autos.
Noh Dong-gil, a researcher at Shinhan Investment & Securities, said, "This structure suggests that in the next phase, the index can level up not through a surge concentrated in a single sector, but through a new division of roles among existing growth engines and the addition of new candidates."
They also analyzed that even at "KOSPI 5,000," the valuation burden remains low. Noh said, "The current KOSPI price-earnings ratio (PER) is 10.5 times," adding, "Based on the distribution since 2023, that is the median. The gap with the overheated zone is still large."
To quantitatively assess the likelihood of KOSPI 6,000, Shinhan Investment & Securities calculated a sector-by-sector "undervaluation potential score" based on the growth rate of earnings per share (EPS) over the past 12 months. This metric quantifies the gap between each sector's recent EPS growth rate and its relative stock performance.
According to this indicator, the upper tier included many sectors such as displays, retail, consumer staples, hotels and leisure, cosmetics and apparel, communication services, and securities.
Noh said, "These are sectors where stock prices have been slow to reflect EPS improvement over the past year," adding, "Looking only at the 12-month quantitative results, the candidate pool for KOSPI 6,000 is heavily weighted toward consumer and service sectors and those poised to recover from underperformance."
At the same time, they analyzed that achieving KOSPI 6,000 will require not only continued "structural growth sectors" but also a recovery from oversold conditions.
Noh said, "The rise of new leaders is important, but it largely has the character of a broadening rally that occurs as the market acknowledges the durability of earnings in sectors that were relatively neglected."
They added that to lift the index to a higher level, a shift in perception is needed for areas where profits have already materialized but confidence has been lacking.
Noh said, "On top of that, exporters that can benefit from a higher won-dollar exchange rate are a better alternative," adding, "Specifically, consumer staples and cosmetics and apparel, centered on exporters, fit the bill."