Since the New Year, the KOSPI is on an all-time record-setting run. Last week (Jan. 5-9) the KOSPI kept rallying without a single day of correction, breaking through 4,400 points on the 5th and 4,500 points on the 6th in succession. On the 7th, it topped 4,600 points intraday, writing a new chapter in Korea's stock market.
In particular, as the "people's stock" Samsung Electronics rose to around 140,000 won and SK hynix to around 750,000 won, many are saying they are suffering from "FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) syndrome."
The biggest question for the market this week is whether to buy more Samsung Electronics. Among experts, a cautious view that a "breather" is inevitable after the steep climb and an optimistic view that the index will attempt to capture the 4,700 level based on improving earnings are evenly matched.
Experts who see a potential correction in the KOSPI say a rush of profit-taking could emerge at the top. In particular, the U.S. Supreme Court ruling scheduled for midnight on the 10th, Korea time, could be the trigger.
At 10 a.m. on the 9th local time, the U.S. Supreme Court signaled it would issue rulings. It did not specify which cases, but many expect a decision on the legality of the Donald Trump administration's reciprocal tariff. According to local media, it was found that the Trump administration has an 80% chance of losing.
However, the Supreme Court did not issue a tariff ruling on the scheduled day. The situation of embedded uncertainty persists. Na Jeong-hwan, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, said, "If the court later orders a full refund of tariff revenue, the U.S. government's fiscal burden will grow and the potential for heightened volatility in Government Bonds yields could come to the fore," adding, "It could act as a factor for a stock price correction."
The renewed weakening trend of the won is also adding pressure to the sharp rise in stocks. The won-dollar exchange rate, which had been pushed down to the 1,430-won level at the end of last year due to strong government intervention, recently broke back above 1,450 won. Although the unusual phenomenon of the won-dollar rate and the KOSPI rising together had appeared for a time, if the exchange rate soars again despite the government's comprehensive measures, foreign investor sentiment toward the domestic stock market will inevitably worsen.
Attention is focusing on the strong selling by foreigners in Samsung Electronics. Lately, the KOSPI's swings have been heavily swayed by the share price moves of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, and the trend shows foreigners and individuals intensively trading shares with each other.
Jeong Hae-chang of Daishin Securities Co. diagnosed, "After the early-year surge in the index, a short-term correction may occur as the market digests supply, and selling pressure to take profits has also increased ahead of key economic indicators." He advised, "Rather than chasing at current price levels, it is appropriate to respond by increasing weights using volatility (buying when the market corrects)."
On the other hand, optimism that the market will extend its rally this week is also strong. After "CES 2026," the world's largest IT exhibition that collectively lifted Hyundai Motor Group shares last week, closes, the "J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference" will be held in San Francisco for four days starting on the 12th this week. The biotech sector could draw attention through this event. In particular, focus is expected on drug development and healthcare names that incorporate artificial intelligence (AI).
Expanding earnings momentum in the market also supports a positive outlook. At the end of last year, some securities projected the KOSPI would reach 5,000 points in the New Year, based on upward revisions to earnings expectations for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix.
But even in the New Year, the operating profit consensus for chipmakers continues to rise. Major global investment banks (IBs) expect the combined operating profit of the two domestic semiconductor companies to reach 300 trillion won this year. Yuanta Securities Korea said, "In Korea's stock market, an unprecedented earnings-driven phase is becoming reality through semiconductors."
Meanwhile, the Bank of Korea's monetary policy committee is scheduled for the 15th this week. The key interest rate is likely to be kept unchanged at 2.50% per year. Experts expect the Monetary Policy Board to discuss a "K-shaped" economic recovery at this meeting.