Tesla is struggling under weak earnings, but fandom among Korean retail investors trading U.S. stocks is growing more solid.
According to the Korea Securities Depository (KSD) on the 9th, through the 8th this year (based on settlement date), the overseas stock most net bought by domestic investors was Tesla. The amount was $374.16 million (about 544.2 billion won).
Investors also bought $281.04 million (about 408.8 billion won) of the exchange-traded fund (ETF) "Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares," which tracks twice Tesla's share-price gains. This ETF ranked No. 2 in net purchases. The combined purchase amount of the two was about 1 trillion won, accounting for 44% of total U.S. stock net purchases during the period.
Tesla shares hit a record high ($489.88) on the 16th of last month, then slid to $435.80 overnight, down 11% from the peak. With excitement over robotaxis not what it used to be, an "earnings shock" weighed on the stock. Fourth-quarter deliveries last year (about 420,000 units) fell short of market expectations and plunged 16% from a year earlier, and the company even ceded the annual sales crown to China's BYD. In particular, when Nvidia said on the 5th it would enter the robotaxi business, fears of intensifying competition drove the stock down more than 4% further.
Even so, domestic investors remain optimistic. Tesla is also developing a Humanoid Robot and its own artificial intelligence (AI) chip, beyond robotaxis, and both are slated to enter production this year, which appears to be sustaining related expectations.
Wall Street views are sharply divided. Analyst Ben Kallo at Baird set a target price of $548, citing attention to Tesla's robotaxi expansion this year, the launch of a new electric vehicle, more concrete information on sales of the Humanoid Robot Optimus, and an initial public offering (IPO) of SpaceX by Elon Musk, Tesla's chief executive officer (CEO). Dan Ives, the Wedbush Securities analyst known as a "Tesla bull," said in a report on the 5th that Tesla could capture about 70% of the global Autonomous Driving market over the next decade, setting a $600 target.
Conversely, the electric vehicle institutional sector, which accounts for most of sales and profit, is expected to struggle. On Wall Street, Tesla's expected deliveries this year have been cut to about 1.8 million, far below the 3 million projected two years ago. Global research firm Morningstar said the robotaxi business is being assigned an excessively high value and set a $300 target. Contrary to retail investors' hopes, the market's sober assessment is pointing lower.
Details of Tesla's business strategy and mid- to long-term outlook are expected to be confirmed in the fourth-quarter earnings announcement for last year, scheduled for the early morning of the 29th Korea time.
Choi Tae-yong, an analyst at DS Investment & Securities, said, "Tesla is expected to generate about 70% of robotics operating profit in 2030 from a high-margin software subscription model," adding, "This is also a key reason for a re-rating as an AI platform beyond the traditional manufacturing valuation centered on hardware sales."