Hanwha Investment & Securities said on the 8th that APR Co. is likely to post a surprise earnings beat in the fourth quarter of last year (Oct.–Dec.) as U.S. revenue far exceeded previous estimates. It maintained a Buy rating and a target price of 3.3 million won.
Hanwha Investment & Securities estimated that in the fourth quarter of last year APR Co. will record 483.8 billion won in revenue on a consolidation basis and 116.1 billion won in operating profit. Those represent increases of 98.1% and 192.6%, respectively, from 2024, with operating profit expected to top the market consensus of 109.5 billion won.
Han Yu-jung, an analyst at Hanwha Investment & Securities, said, "During Amazon's Black Friday period, many Medicube products ranked near the top in skin care, marking the most remarkable performance in the U.S. cosmetics market," adding, "Fourth-quarter U.S. revenue likely came in at 230 billion won (up 233% from 2024), far exceeding previous estimates."
She went on, "Revenue from Ulta in the United States, where full-scale sales began in August last year, appears to have grown more than 100% quarter over quarter in the fourth quarter following the third," adding, "By region, including Japan and new-growth countries, quarterly revenue likely hit fresh highs."
At the same time, it presented expected figures for this year of 1.9 trillion won in revenue and 482.8 billion won in operating profit. This is because additional entries into U.S. offline channels are expected to ramp up in the second half, while direct expansion into online channels in major European countries is likely to generate new revenue. New demand creation through new device launches is also anticipated.
The analyst added, "APR Co.'s sales target for last year was 1 trillion won, but based on Hanwha's estimates it is projected at 1.46 trillion won," noting, "Although concerns about a high base effect have emerged after delivering growth of more than 100%, the company is highly likely to demonstrate strong scalability this year, both in terms of product lines and launch countries (channels), building on last year's performance."