As the KOSPI index continues its record high rally, securities firms are successively revising the KOSPI forecast bands they released at the end of last year. Yuanta Securities Korea raised this year's KOSPI index range to 4,200–5,200 points, and Kiwoom Securities raised it to 3,900–5,200 points.
Reflecting the explosive growth in semiconductor exports, there is a view that the KOSPI index could settle at 5,000 points. In the most optimistic scenario, it was also suggested that the index could rise to 6,000 points.
On Jan. 6, Yuanta Securities Korea revised this year's KOSPI forecast band upward to 4,200–5,200 points from the previous 3,800–4,600 points. The revision reflects the explosive recent growth in semiconductor exports and a quantum jump in contract prices for HBM and DRAM. For the upper bound, applying this year's expected KOSPI net profit (379.9 trillion won) and a price-earnings ratio (PER) of 12.7 times under general assumptions, and for the lower bound, assuming a worst-case scenario with net profit (331 trillion won) and a PER of 11.1 times, the band was derived.
Kim Yong-gu, an analyst at Yuanta Securities Korea, said, "As expectations for semiconductor earnings continue to be revised upward, it has become a direct factor in changing the outlook for the 2026 KOSPI index," noting, "Samsung Electronics' consensus for this year's operating profit, which was only 46.2 trillion won at the end of September last year, rose steeply to 90.8 trillion won as of the 5th of this month, and SK hynix likewise jumped from 47.8 trillion won to 80.5 trillion won over the same period."
According to recent foreign media reports, Samsung Electronics, SK hynix and Micron, the three major players, notified key clients that they raised first-quarter contract prices for server DRAM by 60%–70% from the prior quarter. Analyst Kim judged that this means a severe semiconductor supply shortage has materialized.
He said, "Accordingly, centered on major global investment banks (IBs), there is a view that this year's operating profit for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix could each settle in the mid-150 trillion won range, with a combined total in the 300 trillion won range," adding, "For the Korea stock market, where annual operating profit has never once exceeded 300 trillion won, an unprecedented earnings-driven rally is becoming reality through semiconductors."
Kim projected that the upper bound of this year's KOSPI index could make an additional leap to the 6,000-point level. The analysis assumes a top-tier scenario in which this year's KOSPI net profit expands to 427 trillion won, up 30% from the current estimate, and a price-earnings ratio (P/E) of 13.7 times is applied.
He said, "Whether this year's operating profit for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix can leap to around 145 trillion won and 130 trillion won, respectively, will be the touchstone for reaching KOSPI 6,000 points." By quarter, he suggested a high-first, low-later pattern of 4,200–4,600 points in the first quarter of 2026, 4,500–4,900 points in the second quarter, 4,800–5,200 points in the third quarter, and 4,600–5,000 points in the fourth quarter.
Kiwoom Securities also raised its expectations for the KOSPI index that day. It revised the expected band upward to 3,900–5,200 points from the previous 3,500–4,500 points. The revision reflects the judgment that foreign inflows are leading the bull run and that the earnings cycle will expand significantly, centered on semiconductors.
Han Ji-young, an analyst at Kiwoom Securities, said, "The early-year KOSPI rally stems from a combination of foreign inflows and earnings momentum," adding, "Unlike past bull markets, this one is led by foreign investors, so we can leave additional room at the top of the range."
Han added, "Typically, expectations for fourth-quarter results are not high due to bonus payments and one-off expense recognition, but this fourth-quarter earnings season is seeing expectations for an earnings surprise strengthen, centered on semiconductors," noting, "Fourth-quarter results for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are highly likely to beat market expectations, aided by continued strength in memory prices, a favorable exchange-rate environment, and trickle-down effects from Micron's stock strength."